A question that immediately comes to mind is: What does the November 5 US election mean for India-US energy relations? Donald Trump’s return to the White House will lead to a reorientation of bilateral relations between the two on the energy front.

Not really, if we go by what the decision makers in New Delhi have to say. “A lot has happened between Trump’s first term and now,” an official said here.

According to Western media reports, Trump’s energy agenda may emphasize energy independence, economic growth and expanded fossil fuel production.

US-India energy cooperation is technical, economic and bilateral. The US is among India’s top five suppliers of fossil fuels, which is why New Delhi cannot be ignored by the Trump regime.

According to available data, hydrocarbon trade between the two countries almost doubled between 2018-19, reaching $13.6 billion in 2023-24. For the first two months of FY25, hydrocarbon trade is valued at $2.43 billion.

In November 2009, the two countries launched the Clean Energy Promotion Partnership to accelerate inclusive and low-carbon growth by supporting the research and deployment of clean energy technologies.

Green initiatives

In 2021, the two revamped the US-India Strategic Clean Energy Partnership (SCEP) to advance both countries’ climate and clean energy goals, following the US-India Clean Energy and Climate Partnership 2030 announced by President Joe Biden and by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. which recognized the importance of accelerating climate action in the decisive decade ahead.

Within SCEP, the two countries agreed to collaborate on five pillars: power and energy efficiency; Renewable energy; Responsible Oil and Gas; Sustainable growth; Emerging fuels.

In addition, the two would continue to promote innovation in civil nuclear energy as a net-zero solution through various collaborative programs, including the Civil Nuclear Energy Working Group (CNEWG).

The two countries would also engage the private sector and other technical stakeholders to help implement clean technologies to accelerate a transition to clean energy.

According to Peter J. Jarka-Sellers, an expert on US-India energy policy, “There is every indication that Trump’s fundamental orientation on energy and climate will be the same as during his first term. He will seek to boost fossil fuel production, remove measures to reduce consumption and completely reject climate change mitigation as a political imperative. He campaigned vocally on this, and his campaign was supported by the fossil fuel industry.

“He will almost certainly move to roll back all Biden-era regulations, such as setting emission limits for coal and gas-fired power plants, fuel efficiency standards for cars (including the promotion of electric vehicles), and regulations supporting clean energy industries, such as offshore wind, where the federal government plays. a particularly important role,” he said, adding: “These are some of the best-known examples.”

“Connected with increased production and greater relevance to other countries such as India, he will seek new and expanded export markets for fossil fuels such as LNG. The result will be that the energy transition is slowing and that shifts away from fossil fuels will be driven by market forces and state/local policy rather than national policy,” he said.

But, a lot has changed from 2016-2020, he agrees. “The clean energy industry for one is larger/more mature, clean technologies are being deployed faster and in larger volumes and this industry is by extension more politically and economically influential,” he said.

While it was easier for Trump to undo Obama’s executive actions, it may not be easy to undo Biden’s actions that were through legislation. Therefore, Trump can tread in a more structured way.

The Russian angle

Another aspect to watch out for is Trump’s stance on Russian oil. India’s position on Russian oil has been clear. For India, what mattered was trade – the availability of cheap oil.

According to Jarka-Sellers, “The future of Russian oil sanctions is unclear, although changes to Biden-era policy seem likely at some point. It’s hard to say when, if, and how US sanctions policy toward Russia will change, and I think the future of sanctions on Russian oil likely depends on how Trump approaches the US-Russia relationship and the war in Ukraine more broadly. .”

Trump, however, appears to be less firmly committed to Ukraine’s war effort and its territorial integrity, he said, adding that “Trump has suggested that he will make a deal with Russia to end the war at Ukraine’s expense and having given the sanctions record against Russia, lifting those sanctions would be a very logical and, by extension, likely part of such a deal. Russia would probably make that a condition for a deal, and if Trump goes ahead with such a deal, he’ll probably have to accept that condition.”

While Trump is clear about his stance on clean energy projects, it’s also clear that American business is running solely on trade. But, one aspect that has also emerged between Trump’s first term and now is that India cannot be ignored as it is a stable market for the fossil fuel industry.

India will have to hone its negotiation skills when doing business with the US.