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Here’s who’s leading in key 2024 election battlegrounds
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Here’s who’s leading in key 2024 election battlegrounds

The top line

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively tied, with the final New York Times pre-election poll showing Harris leading in four of the seven states, Trump up in one and a tie in two others – though polling averages show no candidate ahead by more than 2.5 points in any of the seven battlegrounds.

Key facts

Pennsylvania: Couldn’t get any closer – the candidates are tied at 48% in both the New York Times/Siena study (margin of error 3.5 points) and a Morning Consult poll, along with three other TIES last week, while Harris is ahead 50%-48% in a Marist POLL and 48%-47% in a Washington Post POLLand she is ahead 49%-48% in a big Electoral study in cooperation poll, though Trump was up 47%-46% on Wednesday Quinnipiac survey. Trump leads Harris by 0.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Georgia: Harris is ahead 48%-47% in the New York Times/Siena poll, and Trump is up 50%-48% in the Morning Consult poll, while Trump holds a 48%-47% lead in the Thursday CNN/SSRS poll (margin of error 4.7), and he was up 51%-46% in the CES poll (2,663 respondents). Trump leads by 1.5 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Michigan: Harris and Trump are tied at 47% in the New York Times/Siena studythough Harris is up 49%-48% in a Morning consultation poll and 51%-48% in Marist survey along with three other POLLS which found Harris in the lead while Trump has a rare lead in one Washington Post poll released Thursday showing him 47%-45% among registered voters and ahead 49%-48% in a The Emerson Survey released Tuesday (margin of error 3 points). Harris is up 0.7 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Wisconsin: Harris is ahead 49%-47% in the New York Times/Siena POLL50%-48% at Marist study50%-47% in the CES survey (1,542 respondents), 51%-45% in CNN/SSRS poll and 50%-49% in a The Marquette Pollwhile Trump has a roughly one-point lead (rounded to 48%-48%) according to Morning consultationTrump is up 49% to 48% in an Emerson studyand the two candidates are tied at 48 percent in a Quinnipiac POLL. Harris rose 0.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Nevada: The New York Times/Siena POLL shows Harris leading Trump 49%-46%, while Emerson POLL published Friday, found Harris ahead 48%-47% (margin of error 3.6 points) and she was up 51%-47% in the CES study (933 respondents), though Trump is ahead 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS study released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points). Trump is ahead by 0.7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Arizona: Trump leads 49%-45% in New York Times/Siena POLLhe’s up 51%-47% in the CES poll (2,066 respondents) and leads 50%-49% in a Marist survey POLL released Oct. 24 (margin of error 3.7) and 49%-46% in a school Washington Post-Schar POLL (margin of error 5), while Morning consultation shows a 48%-48% tie, with Harris leading 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll this week (margin of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.6 points in FiveThirtyEight poll average.

Big number

1 point. That’s Harris’ lead in national polls conducted by FiveThirtyEight average.

Tangent

Harris has a 49%-48% lead among voters in all seven battleground states, according to a the new HarrisX/Forbes survey except Thursday, a statistical tie, but 14 percent of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning there’s plenty of room for the race to change.

Key background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 amid an uproar within the party over his performance in the debates — dramatically changing the Democrats’ fortunes. Before the change, polls consistently found Trump beating Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of seven (except North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris Polls 2024: Harris Maintains Lead in 4 New Polls (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Michigan 2024 polls: Harris narrowly leads in one of her swing states (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Pennsylvania 2024 Polls: Harris leads by less than 1 point in polling averages (Forbes)

Trump-Harris North Carolina 2024 Polls: Near Tie in New Seventh Swing State (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Georgia polls in 2024: Most polls show Trump ahead in key state (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Nevada 2024 polls: Harris has narrow lead, but struggles with Latino voters (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Wisconsin 2024 Polls: The latest polls show Trump with a slight lead (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Arizona 2024 Polls: Trump Holds Lead in Latest Swing State Poll (Forbes)