House lawmakers were briefed on Wednesday about the potential outcome if the US found itself at war with China over Taiwan over the next two years as the global superpower increasingly encroaches on US allies.

China’s defense industrial base operates on a “wartime” basis and now has 230 times the US’s shipbuilding capacity, making a potential invasion of Taiwan a not at all unlikely outcome.

US military analysts projected 2027 as the year by which China would be fully equipped for a military invasion of Taiwan. And the US has long followed a policy of refusing to say whether it would come to the island’s defense in such a scenario.

But in war exercises conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 25 times and presented to members of the House Select Committee on China, the alliance of the US, Taiwan and Japan defeated an amphibious invasion by China and maintained a Autonomous Taiwanbut not without suffering heavy losses.

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During the simulation, the cost to all sides was high – there were over 10,000 casualties – and the US lost 10-20 warships, two aircraft carriers, 200-400 warplanes and over 3,000 soldiers were killed in the three weeks of fighting.

China loses 90% of its amphibious fleet, 52 major surface warships and 160 warplanes.

“In our exercise today, we went through a simulation of what could happen in a worst-case scenario of conflict with China and learned ways we can work together in a bipartisan manner to ensure that America is ready to once again be the arsenal of democracy. if called upon No matter where or when, the United States and our allies must have the military means to defeat our adversaries,” Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Mich., chairman. of the committee, Fox News Digital said.

A Chinese Coast Guard vessel patrols the disputed Scarborough Shoal. (Castro/File Photo)

The report made four key points: 1) Taiwan must “hold the line” on land invasion, 2) there is no “Ukraine” model in which the US can slowly escalate – it must decide immediately whether to come to Taiwan’s defense, 3) operations military should be conducted through Japan and 4) the US must immediately increase its supply of anti-ship missiles.

The conclusion of the report is that China chooses “D-Day”, but Taiwan and its defenders must be ready at all times. The war game assumed a 2026 release date for the invasion of China.

The scenario operates on the assumption that the US under President-elect Trump would come to Taiwan’s defense, although no such promise has been made. It is not clear what Trump would do in such a scenario – he thought that Taiwan should pay the US for giving it defensive aid.

Japan would be to be the US and Taiwan’s key ally in such a fight, as South Korea has not authorized the US to launch combat missions from its territory. CSIS recommends immediate deepening of US-Japan diplomatic relations.

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“It would certainly be very helpful if South Korea were with us,” said Matthew Cancian, a researcher at the Naval War College and lead author of the project. The US would likely move two of the four squadrons it has stationed in South Korea to help fight China in Taiwan.

But as the presenters warned, north korea they might try to take advantage of the situation and invade the south, especially after gaining operational experience from their fight with Russia against Ukraine.

The exercise also argued that, unlike US aid to Ukraine, which goes through NATO territory to get there, the US could not arm Taiwan without sending US forces – China’s anti-tank or anti-aircraft missiles would threaten any transport that would make them. way to the island.

“US forces should be directly involved,” Cancian said. “There is no way we can walk away from taking over Taiwan while keeping US forces safe.”

And if the US were to come to the defense of Taiwan, there would be no time to waste, as China is much closer geographically than US forces. “If the US didn’t join the fight for two weeks (after an invasion), it would be too late. Chian would already have too strong a base,” Cancian said.

Chinese land-attack missiles and anti-ship missiles would pose the greatest threat in theater. Harpoons and coastal defense cruise missiles would be “absolutely critical” to Taiwan’s defense, according to the war exercise.

China outnumbers the US in aircraft, ships and missiles, the exercise found, and to deter it from waging war on Taiwan, the US must immediately ramp up production of key munitions, according to the war games.

The current US stockpile of anti-ship missiles, around 440, would be exhausted in less than seven days in a war with China.

China would not want to give up easily, as a loss in Taiwan could be “very destabilizing” for the government’s legitimacy at home.

The war games also emphasized the need for the Taiwanese defense budget to stop focusing on large, expensive ships that China will easily destroy and focus on smaller, more survivable ships and submarines.

Freshmen participate in military training in Nantong, Jiangsu Province, China. (Xu Peiqin/VCG via Getty Images)

The Chinese Navy is passing through a mine-threatened zone. (Sun Zifa/China News Service via Getty Images)

And the US must focus on arming Taiwan with smaller ships and cheaper munitions, with most wargame iterations finding the US losing two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants.

“We’ve got to get them to throw their fancy stuff at our fancy stuff,” said Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla. “They’re going to overtake us … we have to wake up.”

The US and Taiwan must not attack mainland China, both to avoid the risk of escalation with a nuclear power and because Chinese air defenses on the mainland are “too strong”.

Ultimately, such an invasion could happen sooner, or not at all.

The head of the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), Adm. Samuel Paparo, recently said he believes the US would make it “extremely difficult” for China to stage a cross-strait invasion.

For years, the US military has shifted its focus from middle east in the Indo-Pacific, “the most stressful theater,” as Paparo describes it, given that China is the world’s most capable potential adversary.

According to Chinese policy, the CCP will only invade if Taiwan declares independence from China, if a third power intervenes in the dispute, or if Beijing determines that “unification has been irrevocably beyond its reach by any other means.”

While the US has no formal alliance with Taiwan, China has invaded the air and sea territory of US Pacific allies Japan and the Philippines.

Paparo said he saw “the most repetitions and the most common drills.” China during the summer that “I had seen throughout a career as an observer.”

“This included 152 ships at sea on a given day,” Paparo added.

China’s navy is the largest in the world, with over 370 ships and submarines. The US combat force includes 295 ships, including 11 active aircraft carriers.

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“This was the biggest repetition we’ve seen on an upward trajectory of the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) modernization,” Paparo said, referring to the name of the Chinese military.