Welcome to Week 11 of the NFL and fantasy football season. Last week was a mixed bag for this space, with Sam Darnold going all Sam Darnold while Chuba Hubbard held his own in a big way. I was also a little too nice to Calvin Ridley and Marvin Harrison Jr. Both had tough matches, but their usage, especially Ridley’s, was too good to pass up. Overall I turned out okay though. So let’s take another swing at a start/stay for Week 11.

If you want to follow my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts to group decisions. To give me a base, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide.

Jared Goff, Lions vs. Jaguars

Goff has been extremely effective this season, but has only finished in the Top 12 fantasy quarterbacks three times. Then last week, Goff went into a turnover, throwing five interceptions against the Texans. Fortunately, he gets a matchup with the Jaguars this week, which should help him bounce back fairly easily.

The Jaguars have allowed eight quarterbacks to finish higher than QB12 this season and only faced ten! Sorry, Sam Darnold and Deshaun Watson. They allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season to go along with ranking last in pass defense in DVOA and EPA per dropback. The Lions have the weapons to effectively cut through this defense and give Goff a nice fantasy number in Week 11.

Russell Wilson, Steelers vs. Ravens

Wilson is coming off a three-touchdown game against the Commanders and should be asked to throw even more against their division rival Ravens. Baltimore has the perfect setup for opposing passing games to thrive. First, their offense is averaging 31.8 points and 440.2 yards per game, best in the league in both categories. That scoring then forces teams to throw more than they’d like because their opponents average the most pass attempts, completions and passing yards per game, which of course translates into big fantasy points.

Wilson has now started three games for the Steelers this season and has finished QB3, QB24 and QB9. He threw six touchdowns to one interception and rushed for another score. The pairings weren’t that difficult, but we know this one won’t be either, at least for fantasy.

Jordan Love, Packers to Bears

Love throws the ball enough and has enough good receivers to eventually put up good fantasy numbers, but this week will be tough. The Bears allowed just one quarterback to finish as QB12 or better this season, and he had to hit a game-winning Hail Mary to accomplish that. They rank 6th in pass defense DVOA and 2nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Love is a player who could buck that trend, but the Bears offense has been so weak that I don’t see Love needing to throw the ball a ton in this one. The Bears are weaker against the run than the pass, which should set this game up as a low-scoring Josh Jacobs game.

Patrick Mahomes, Bills Chiefs

Mahomes has put up better numbers the last two weeks, but his upside is no longer QB1 every week and you’re just hoping for a Top 10 pick at this point. Unfortunately, the Bills’ pass defense only allowed one quarterback to finish that high, and that was Lamar Jackson, who completed just 13 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns. Of course, he added a ton of fantasy points as a running back as well, but we can’t expect that from Mahomes.

Nick Chubb, Browns at Saints

Chubb hasn’t been good since returning from his latest devastating knee injury. He is averaging just 2.7 yards on 43 attempts through three games. Those games came against the Bengals, Ravens and Chargers. In terms of fantasy picks, those teams are currently 8th, 9th and 3rd. At least he hasn’t been stopped by the worst in the league. And this week, he gets the worst, or at least close to the worst, in the Saints.

New Orleans has given up nine rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown to running backs in its last five games. They rank 31st in both DVOA and EPA run defense. They have very little offense right now, which means the Browns won’t need to run the ball a ton in a game that should at least be close. Chubb should get plenty of opportunities in a good game.

Kareem Hunt, Chiefs vs. Bills

The Bills have given up 10 fantasy Top 12 picks so far this season. Only Carolina, Tampa Bay and Arizona have given up more, and they all have byes this week. We probably don’t have much more time with Kareem Hunt as the leader in Kansas City, but this week I expect a heavy workload for him and a good game.

Hunt hasn’t seen a ton of targets this season, that is until last week when he had 10 carries and seven catches for 63 yards. The hope is that this usage backfires against the Bills, who have been very bad at not getting back. The year they gave up the most receptions, yards and touchdowns to running backs through the air.

Najee Harris, Steelers vs. Ravens

Harris has played well this season, but he’s not at a caliber where he needs to be kept on the field when Jaylen Warren and Cordarelle Patterson are healthy as well. This week against a good Ravens run defense, I expect Warren to see work in losses and Patterson to continue to see a handful of touches. With the Ravens ranking fourth in rushing defense DVOA and 2nd in EPA, plus Harris’ non-guaranteed workload, I’m officially worried about his upside this week.

Tony Pollard, Titans Vs. Vikings

Pollard is playing very well this season, but he’s on a bad team, and now he has Tyjae Spears back to take away his touches. But more importantly, he faces a Vikings defense that ranks as the best in the league against the run in DVOA and EPA while giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. This is a matchup to avoid if possible.

Quentin Johnston, Chargers vs. Bengals

The Bengals have allowed 11 receivers to finish in the weekly fantasy Top 12 at the position. Only two other teams allowed more. The Bengals rank 27th in DVOA in pass defense and 29th in EPA. The Chargers, when needed, aren’t averse to running the ball with Justin Herbert, and this week they may need to run a strong offense against the Bengals.

Quentin Johnston was a linebacker last season and this offseason, but he stepped up in year two. Injuries have slowed him down, but when he’s on the field he makes plays, especially in the end zone, where he has five touchdowns in seven games.

Cedric Tillman, Browns vs. Saints

Tillman has taken a big step since Amari Cooper was traded to Buffalo and Jameis Winston stepped in for the injured Deshaun Watson. Over the past three games, he has caught 21 of 32 targets for 255 yards and three touchdowns. These are WR1 numbers. The Saints just traded for Marshon Lattimore, so they have that gap and are ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed this season. Don’t worry about getting Tillman out there over experienced receivers this week.

Jordan Addison, Vikings vs. Titans

The Titans pass defense has played well this season as they have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Jordan Addison was inconsistent, finishing just one week higher than WR19. And now that TJ Hockenson is back, his already low target share will continue to be poor. At this point, Addison still has upside, but will lack consistency. When tough matchups come up, I’ll probably be inclined to bench him.

Michael Pittman, Colts at Jets

Anthony Richardson is back after Joe Flacco flopped for two games. Richardson’s inaccuracy issues will likely degrade all wide receivers for the Colts, but at this point, I think you can let Pittman go. He missed last week with a finger and back injury but looks set to play this week. His nagging back injury, coupled with Josh Down’s strong play and Richardson’s accuracy issues, isn’t something that looks to be getting better anytime soon. Add in a tough matchup with the Jets secondary and I’m out.

Will Dissley, Chargers vs. Bengals

The Bengals rank 29th in fantasy points awarded to tight ends and 25th in DVOA against the position. I like this game to pick up Justin Herbert and the Chargers passing attack, as the Bengals are sixth in points scored per game compared to the Chargers’ 19th. They haven’t played many high-powered offenses on the season, the Chiefs being the best. They will need to step up their offense to compete.

Will Dissly has taken over at tight end and has seen a good amount of work since Week 6. The results haven’t been great, but he has a 21% target share in that span and I expect those targets to increase overall this week, in while his recent usage around the goal line should result in a touchdown sooner rather than later.

Hunter Henry, Patriots vs. Rams

The Rams allow the second-most yards per reception to tight ends, along with ranking 24th in fantasy points allowed. This is a game where the Rams should take advantage and push Drake Maye and company to throw the ball more than usual.

Henry had a rough start last week against a good Bears defense, but he should be able to get back on track this week in an easier matchup. Before last week, Henry had completed TE7, TE6, TE19 and TE11, and all of them were just one touch. He’s getting plenty of targets and receptions to have a good floor in PPR this week.

Jake Ferguson, Cowboys vs. Texans

The Cooper Rush era got off to a bad start. He threw for 45 yards on 23 attempts against the Eagles. It was as ugly as it sounds. The top receiver of the day was none other than Jake Ferguson, who caught 4 of 5 targets for 24 yards. This week they will face a Texans team that ranks first in DVOA against tight ends and also ranks first in points allowed at the position. It’s not looking great for him in Dallas.

Mike Gesicki, Bengals vs. Chargers

Gesicki has had some good games this season with Tee Higgins out and the Bengals also losing tight end Erick All, which should help Gesicki see more snaps. Unfortunately, last week a good portion of the tight ends went to Tanner Hudson. Hudson ended up scoring and putting up better overall numbers than Gesicki. This week there is a chance for Tee Higgins to return and Hudson only helped his case last week. The Chargers also rank 6th in DVOA against tight ends, further diluting their advantage.