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Here’s why Trump won the Michigan battleground
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Here’s why Trump won the Michigan battleground

Donald Trump turned Michigan red in the 2024 presidential election, defeating Kamala Harris there and paving her way back to the White House.

One of the most hotly contested swing statesMichigan was considered to be a deciding factor in the outcome of the election.

Rep. Bill Huizenga, R-Mich., said Michigan residents wondered Ronald Reagan’s famous question: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”

“The inroads made in non-traditional Republican areas and constituencies are huge,” Huizenga said The daily signal of Michigan results.

At the end of the day, Democrats had a deeply flawed candidate in Harris, President Joe Biden’s running mate, said Steve Mitchell, a Michigan poll who is the president of Mitchell Research & Communications Inc.

“If you look objectively at where America was for four years under Trump in terms of foreign affairs, in terms of domestic issues, in terms of the cost of living, it was better under President Trump than under President Biden Mitchell said. The Daily Signal, “this is why President Trump got re-elected.”

Here are three big reasons why Trump won Michigan by 95,000 votes in all three Democratic “Blue Wall” states, which also include Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Trump picked up another 35,000 votes in two key counties

To win Michigan, Trump needed to perform better in two swing counties, Kent and Oakland. Harris ultimately triumphed in Michigan’s liberal counties, but Trump garnered 30,000 more votes in Oakland County than he did in 2020 and 5,000 more votes in Kent County.

Oakland and Kent counties have undergone major demographic changes in the past two decades. Both were once Republican strongholds, but growth in suburban Detroit and the city of Grand Rapids turned the counties from red to blue in 2020.

About a third of Trump’s 95,000-vote margin in Michigan came from doing better in Kent and Oakland than he did when he barely won the state in 2016 over Hillary Clinton, 47.6% to 47.4%.

“This is only the second time a Republican has carried Michigan since 1988,” Mitchell said, referring to Trump’s 2016 victory. “The first time was by about 10,000 votes, and this time it was by almost 100,000 of votes. So it’s a significant win.”

Mitchell, unrelated to this reporter, had predicted that if Trump did well in Kent and Oakland, he would win Michigan.

“If they’re very strong on Harris, then it’s probably good for Harris,” Mitchell told The Daily Signal before the election. “If, on the other hand, for some reason it’s within two or three points in Kent County and maybe six or eight points in Oakland County for Harris, then Harris is probably going to lose.”

Huizenga said Trump was able to pull off a victory of this magnitude through hard work and staying on message.

“I think this is a testament to the fact that we’re staying on message and that Kamala Harris is, shall we say, an identifiable unqualified candidate,” the West Michigan congressman said.

Although some Republicans have been hesitant to endorse Trump in 2020, Huizenga said he’s noticed people are more willing to publicly support the former president this year.

“The criminal proceedings, all the harassment, the law that happened with Trump, brought back some of those stray Republican votes,” he said.

Harris failed to make big performances with racial minorities

Trump gained two percentage points with blacks in Michigan to win 9% of the black vote, compared to 7% in 2020.

“He clearly did something that no Republican candidate has done,” Mitchell said, “which is to motivate African Americans to vote for a Republican candidate.”

Minorities in Michigan have seen their “purchasing power diminished” during the Biden-Harris administration, Huizenga said.

“They see the cost of food, the cost of running a small business, the cost of pulling up to the gas pump,” the Michigan Republican said. “They felt the impact, and I think that’s why the message that was there, even about the border, ties into a law-and-order narrative that has clearly gotten out of hand under the Biden-Harris administration.”

“I think Trump has been true to the economic message,” Huizenga continued, “as well as the safety and security message. And here in Michigan, all the Dems wanted to talk about was abortion.”

Because Democrats were so focused on abortion, which is already legal until birth in Michigan, they didn’t sufficiently address the economy, foreign policy, energy policy and other issues that actually affect Michiganders, Huizenga said.

“Donald Trump has kind of become the counterculture,” he said, “and I think there’s a certain appeal to that.”

Mitchell said Democrats have lost some of the minority vote to illegal immigration.

“Illegal immigrants were taking jobs that many African-Americans would have gotten otherwise,” the poll said, “and I think they’re fed up with the Biden-Harris administration for allowing these incredible numbers of immigrants to enter in the country. And that door will be slammed by the Trump administration.”

Harris did not appeal to the Michigan faithful

This time around, Trump has won Catholics in Michigan by 20 percentage points, according to the Fox News exit poll.

Huizenga said he saw this realignment of the party with Irish Catholics in his own family in Michigan. He attributes it to Democrats’ positions on social issues, abortion and the economy.

“They’re small business owners, they’re union members, they’re firefighters and police officers,” Huizenga said of the Catholic vote. “I’m not surprised that people of faith felt that the Democrats abandoned them a long time ago, and in fact it’s gotten so bad that they feel rejected.”

In mid-October, Harris did not go to the Al Smith dinner, an annual fundraising event for Catholic charities traditionally attended by presidential candidates. Many older Catholics saw it as a slap in the face, Mitchell said.

“She basically gave the Catholic vote to Donald Trump directly through her actions,” the survey said.

The former president also had a net gain of 16,000 votes in Dearborn, the largest concentration of Muslim Americans in the nation.

The Biden-Harris administration tried to play both sides in the Israel-Hamas war, losing both Jewish and Muslim support, Mitchell argued.

“I think what they’ve recognized is that (Trump) is going to resolve an immediate war and (Israel) is going to stop killing Arabs, and that’s what they want, and they didn’t get that,” Mitchell said of Muslims.