The Chinese military has increased its provocative flights around Taiwan by 300 percent in the past five months, according to the commander of the US Air Force’s Indo-Pacific Command.

In an exclusive interview with NBC News, General Kevin Schneider warned that the activities of the People’s Liberation Air Force have increased dramatically since Taiwan’s new president was inaugurated in May.

“Whether it’s entering the air defense identification zone or crossing the center line of the Taiwan Strait, since the inauguration we’ve seen a 300 percent increase in these air activities,” he said.

From May 2023 to November 2023, China violated Taiwan’s air defense identification zone 335 times, according to figures released by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense compiled by NBC News. In the same time frame this year, China has violated the same airspace at least 1,085 times, more than three times the previous year.

Over the course of some months, the difference was even more pronounced. In July 2023, for example, 50 Chinese aircraft violated Taiwan’s air defense zone. In July 2024, 210 did, more than four times as many.

Schneider noted that the Chinese Air Force has maintained an increased level of activity since Lai Ching-te was sworn in on May 20. Beijing, what views Lai, a “separatist” and a “troublemaker”, claims that democratically governed Taiwan is its own territory, a view that Lai and his government reject.

A spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, DC, defended the flights.

“The PLA’s relevant experiments are a necessary and legitimate move to repress the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and their separatist activities and send a warning against external interference and provocation,” Liu Pengyu said. It is fully consistent with international law and common practices.

Schneider oversees more than 46,000 airmen in Japan, South Korea, Hawaii, Alaska and Guam. He said the biggest challenge it faces comes from Beijing, which is building a massive missile force, air force, submarine force and cyber force and using those forces to intimidate other nations in the region.

“The behaviors go along with it,” he said, “it’s the bullying, the aggression.”

“My assessment is that it’s a pressurization campaign designed to win without fighting, and I think only to continue to impose costs, physical or otherwise, to present the world with a fait accompli,” he added. “Not only to Taiwan, but to the world where Beijing can achieve its goals and continue to intensify its activities, military activities, along with diplomatic activities, information activities, economic activities, to win without a fight.”

Will Trump defend Taiwan?

Chinese President Xi Jinping has said he plans to unify Taiwan with mainland China and has steadily stepped up military pressure on democratically-ruled Taiwan. US intelligence officials say Xi has ordered his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

CIA Director William Burns has said publicly that this does not mean Xi will invade in 2027, but “is a reminder of the seriousness of his focus and ambition.”

US officials have pointed to 2027 as a possible tipping point for the conflict between China and Taiwan, a year that now falls into President-elect Donald Trump’s second term.

Trump has not pledged to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese military invasion.

“Taiwan should pay us for defense,” he told Bloomberg Businessweek in July. “You know, we’re nothing but an insurance company.”

While Trump has repeatedly characterized the relationship as transactional, some senior advisers in his first term have been among the most vocal supporters of Taiwan, overhauling the process of selling arms to Taiwan and increasing sales during the Trump administration, which has also sent high-level officials to Taiwan. Taiwan. Both actions have heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing under President Trump.

It is unclear how President-elect Trump will work with President Xi over the next four years. But the two have spoken since Trump won the 2024 election, according to the Chinese government, which quoted Xi as telling Trump the two nations needed to find a way to get along.

A current US official said the relationship between the two nations during President Joe Biden’s tenure has also been marked by tensions, but has seen progress in some areas in recent years.

“China thought for sure that it would get back into a much better relationship with the Biden administration and was extremely disappointed,” said a senior US official who follows Chinese politics.

General Schneider said the timing for possible action in 2027 to China is still unclear, but he warned that their behavior has become more aggressive and that China is operating further and further away from mainland China, both in the air and at sea.

Their goal is to push the US out of the region while it builds up its military capabilities, which Schneider said Beijing learned from the US military’s military operations in the Middle East.

“We had the ability to take our time, bring our forces into theater, build big bases, build our capacity, and then at the time of our election, when we had the advantages of the mass in place, it was to could determine when we go to conduct our operations,” he said. “I appreciate that Beijing has recognized that and is now building that capability to prevent us from ever being able to do that and replicate it.”

General Schneider said adversaries in the region could try to test a new Trump administration in the early days. “Regardless of which party wins, this is where the opportunistic side comes in, that actors in the region can try to challenge a new administration.”

“It’s something that we on the military side are prepared for and continue to provide options back to our national leadership,” he said. “Either to prevent or deal with someone who would provide a test for a new administration early in your career.”

Ultimately, Schneider added, the US remains focused on preventing conflict in the region.

“We continue to deter effectively. And for over 80 years, the peace, relative peace and stability of this region has not been written by the presence of the United States military and our partners and allies, and we will continue to do so,” he said. “And if that peace, stability and security is changed unilaterally by someone in the region, then we will respond, and we will respond with a network of allies and partners that is incredibly capable.”