If Manitobans could go to the polls in Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, the majority would vote for the Democratic Party, according to new data.

The Probe Research poll found 71 per cent of Manitobans said they preferred Kamala Harris and running mate Tim Walz, while 24 per cent said they would vote for Donald Trump and JD Vance. Four percent said they would choose another third-party candidate.

The poll found Harris to be the preferred president among most demographic groups in Manitoba, including women, those over 55 and people living in Winnipeg.

Nearly 90 percent of NDP supporters in the province said they would vote for Harris, while 51 percent of PC supporters would choose Trump.

As for who Manitobans think will emerge victorious, 43% said Harris, 27% said Trump and 29% were unsure.

Probe Research also found that nearly 80 percent of Manitobans are interested in and paying attention to the U.S. election, with older adults the most likely to pay close attention to the race.

Nearly three-quarters of respondents think Trump’s re-election would have a negative impact on Canada, and 64% think it would cause more people to come to Canada to seek asylum.

The survey also shows that nearly 40 percent of Manitobans have chosen not to travel to the U.S. in the next six months because of the political climate.

For this survey, Probe Research sampled 800 adults in Manitoba between October 28 and November 1.

No margin of error can be assigned because an online panel is a non-probability sample. However, for comparison purposes, a sample of 800 adults would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error would be larger within each population subgroup.

The full report can be found here online.