If Donald Trump is re-elected on Tuesday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is probably experiencing a major change. Many Republicans have been frustrated with the CDC’s performance during the pandemic. Project 2025written by Republican leaders with ties to Trump, describes the CDC as incompetent and arrogant.

In fact, regardless of who wins the November 5 United States presidential election, the Trump administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic is a cautionary tale for Canada.

While there are significant and justified criticisms to be leveled at Trump regarding his administration’s handling of the pandemic in its early stages, as former chief medical adviser to the president, Dr. Anthony Fauci told Congress in 2024the US health care system is not designed for an effective coordinated response to a health crisis.

Trump and the CDC

There was clearly a disconnect between Trump and the CDC during the pandemic. For weeks in early 2020, President Trump described the threat as low risk; he said the situation is under control in the US and only a few cases have been reported.

While the president was on a flight back from India, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, announced that the situation in the US was about to change rapidly and severely. Officials say so Trump was very upset by the announcement and worried about possible shutdowns causing panic and disruption to financial markets..

In the early stages of the pandemic, the CDC’s actions provoked a high degree of politicization. The Trump administration was criticized for interfering with CDC operations and censoring internal experts. Disagreements between federal and state political leaders and public health experts led to inconsistent in public health messages, reporting, implementation of directives and timing of public health restrictions.

The CDC itself has not been above criticism. Agency infrastructure have been neglected for decades, and years of declining funding have led to insufficient preparations for a possible pandemic. CDC it had also been criticized for being too insular and academic.

The CDC made key mistakes, especially in terms of supervision and testing. Era criticized for underestimating the threat of the virus and overestimating his ability to quickly design, produce, and distribute a test.

Rapid responses are crucial during such events, and the early stages of the US response to the pandemic offer important lessons for Canada, both about its relationship with the US. and global threats in general.

Pre-event planning is necessary, but audits and world rankings of emergency preparedness can be unreliable. In 2019, Johns Hopkins University ranked the US as the best-prepared country in the world to tackle a health crisis. The pandemic proved that it was not.

Canada must establish a strong and independent capacity to assess health threats. Trump’s early handling of the pandemic has been widely criticized, yet the Canadian government’s talking points in the early stages have been the same: the virus was low risk. It was just when The CDC and World Health Organization increased their threat assessment as Canada followed suit.

Lessons from the pandemic

Boundaries can be reasserted. Despite decades of global political and economic agreements that have seen a freer flow of goods, services and people, many Western governments have been unable or unwilling to assume the risks associated with letting those from other jurisdictions cross their borders and , as such, imposed strict rules to prevent the entry of non-citizens. This aggressive stance was ironic and unanticipated, as during previous public health crises such as the H1N1 flu episode of 2009-2010, many governments have pointed out that border closures have had little impact on the spread of the disease.

Weaknesses in supply chains have been highlighted as the global economy shut down in March 2020. Canada’s Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland described the competition for medical supplies and personal protective equipment (PPE) as akin to the “wild west”. Shipping delays, backorders, trade restrictions and defective or contaminated items prevented governments from effectively procuring supplies.

Global manufacturing capacities for vaccines have been below what was needed, with only a dozen countries able to produce COVID-19 vaccines to begin with, including the US. More than any other country, the US enabled the rapid development and production of the vaccine, highlighting considerable dependence on the US Canada has since funded vaccine manufacturing initiatives, but the investments have yielded little to date.

The adage “When the USA sneezes, the world catches a cold” applies nowhere more than in Canada. If Trump is re-elected, the CDC will likely exist on a smaller budget with a reduced international role. This will increase Canadian vulnerabilities.

Whatever the criticisms, the CDC has more capacity and influence than any other health agency in the world. If Canada cannot depend on a strong and coordinated response from the US administration during a health crisis, Canada must be better prepared to adapt. Pandemic lessons provide a powerful to-do list.