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    • The NHC is tracking 4 tropical waves
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    The NHC is tracking 4 tropical waves

    Online Niel Posted on

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    The quiet time is over in the tropics.

    The National Hurricane Center is tracking a broad area of ​​low pressure in the Caribbean Sea that could became a tropical depression late this week or weekend.

    AccuWeather meteorologists have been warning since last week about the potential for a tropical depression or storm to develop in the western Caribbean and currently gives the system a high chance of development between October 31 and November 4.

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    There is another area with potential for development over the weekend or early next week. It is located east-southeast of Florida.

    The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.

    Since 1851, three hurricanes made landfall in Florida in Novemberexhausting residents emotionally and physically. The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.

    “We are tired because the 2024 hurricane season hit us harder than any in a generation,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist with the USA TODAY Network.

    Here is the latest advisory from the NHC as of 2:00 p.m. Monday, October 28:

    Tropical Storm Patty? Will Florida see another storm or hurricane?

    Two conditions that have played a role throughout this hurricane season could bring another depression or tropical storm: low wind shear and very warm water.

    “If there’s low wind shear, which we’re expecting, I think we’ll have a tropical depression or a storm,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

    Even a hurricane is possible, under the right conditions, according to AccuWeather Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert, in a phone interview Monday morning.

    ➤ Tropical storm? Hurricane?! It is possible in early November. What Florida residents should know

    Another factor this time is the Central American Gyre, which is more active early and late in the season. A gyre is a slowly rotating area of ​​air which can help the development of tropical systems.

    “Although tropical storms that form from gyres can sometimes take a few days to become more organized, development can sometimes pick up quickly once it begins,” AccuWeather said.

    “Caribbean storms typically move north or northeast in November. This means residents and visitors along the Southeast Coast will need to keep a close eye on the development,” DaSilva warned.

    November brings tropical development closer to Florida, USA

    While the earlier months in the Atlantic hurricane season usually see tropical waves coming off the African coast, moving across the Atlantic and giving people plenty of warning, this is not the case for the last month of the season.

    “As we move into early November, the focus for tropical development is moving closer to the United States. Typically, late-season focus areas are the Caribbean and off the Southeast coast,” said AccuWeather Senior Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

    Another area to watch located southeast of Florida, USA

    This area currently has low chances of development. It could form on the tail end of a cold front that will move off the East Coast later this week, according to AccuWeather.

    “If an area of ​​low pressure forms and is not attached to the front, then the potential for development would increase.”

    A tropical depression could form later this week in the Caribbean

    A broad area of ​​low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the next few days.

    Gradual development is possible later, and a tropical depression could form later this week or into the weekend as the system begins to move north or northeast toward the central Caribbean Sea.

    • Chance of training in 48 hours: Low, close to 0%.
    • Chance of training in 7 days: Average, 40 percent.

    What else is there and how likely are they to consolidate?

    The National Hurricane Center is also tracking four tropical waves:

    • East Atlantic: A low-amplitude tropical wave west of Cabo Verde is along 35W, south of 15N, moving west at 11 to 17 mph.
    • East of the Leeward Islands: A tropical wave is along 52W, south of 17N, moving west at 11 to 17 mph.
    • Eastern Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave is moving into the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 68V and extends southward into western Venezuela.
    • Southwest Caribbean: Another tropical wave has reached the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua. Its axis is along 84V, south of 18N.

    Who might be affected?

    Regardless of development, widespread showers are expected across much of the Caribbean this week, AccuWeather said. Life-threatening mudslides and flash flooding can result, even in the unlikely event that a tropical depression or tropical storm does not develop.

    Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and to always be prepared.

    Weather observations and warnings issued in Florida

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    When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Countdown Clock: When Will Hurricane Season End?

    Interactive map: hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

    What’s next?

    We’ll continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for us special subscription offers here.

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