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    See the path, patterns of what could become Hurricane Sara

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    Tropical Depression Nineteen formed in the Caribbean Sea, according to National Hurricane Centerand the system is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm on Thursday and could even become Hurricane Sara by next week.

    As of Thursday morning, the system was located about 250 miles east of Guanaja, one of the Honduran Bay Islands in the Caribbean Sea. The hurricane center said the depression is moving west, and that movement should continue through Thursday, taking it over the western Caribbean Sea.

    Forecasters said Tropical Depression Nineteen has maximum sustained winds of nearly 35 mph as of Thursday morning, with higher gusts, and could continue to strengthen if it remains over water.

    “The depression is expected to stall and move off the northern coast of Honduras Friday night and into the weekend,” NHC forecasters said Thursday, with rainfall amounts of

    10 to 20 inches, with isolated storm totals of about 30 inches, expected in northern Honduras.

    That rainfall will lead to “widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flooding and mudslides, particularly along and near the Sierra La Esperanza,” the NHC said Thursday.

    The rest of Honduras, along with Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua could see rainfall totals between 5 and 10 inches, with localized totals around 15 inches, by early next week, according to the hurricane center.

    Times: Huge snow totals reported in the west as another storm approaches

    Will Hurricane Sara Form? Will it affect Florida?

    Some forecast models say the storm, to be named Sara, will reach wind speeds of more than 111 mph and bring catastrophic flooding and storm surge watches to Central America by this weekend. The Gulf Coast has already had five hurricane paths this hurricane season.

    “If the current tropical depression intensifies and makes landfall as forecast, it would be the fourth hurricane this season to hit Florida,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk said Thursday morning. “If so, it will surpass the record of three touchdowns in a season set in 2004.”

    The storm’s interaction with Central America and other surrounding weather patterns will determine the intensity and final destination of the system. Because the system is still forming, without a well-defined center, the average forecast path uncertainty is higher than normal, the hurricane center said.

    Tropical Depression Nineteen Tracks

    Tropical Depression Nineteen Spaghetti Patterns

    Illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five best performing models to make its forecasts.

    Gabe Hauari is a national news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow X @GabeHauari or email them at [email protected].

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