close
close

Association-anemone

Bite-sized brilliance in every update

With the 2024 race so close, a reminder of how few votes decided the 7 swing states in 2020
asane

With the 2024 race so close, a reminder of how few votes decided the 7 swing states in 2020

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump head into Election Day ahead in battleground state and national polls.

As of Nov. 1, Harris and Trump were separated by just 1.2 percent in the national survey averages compiled by 538.

MORE: What you need to know about the Electoral College as the 2024 race draws to a close

At the state level, neither candidate has a lead of more than 2 percentage points in any of the swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The seven battleground states will determine who gets the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

How close the swing state margins were in 2020

President Joe Biden narrowly won six of the seven states in 2020, some by as few as 11,000 or 12,000 votes.

Biden defeated Trump by flipping the “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that Trump won in 2016.

Biden also won Georgia and Arizona, two states that have long been Republican strongholds.

PHOTO: Winning margins in the seven swing states in 2020 (ABC News)PHOTO: Winning margins in the seven swing states in 2020 (ABC News)

PHOTO: Winning margins in the seven swing states in 2020 (ABC News)

Trump won North Carolina by 74,481 votes, which was smaller than his margin of victory there over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

In total, 386,769 votes in these seven states determined the outcome of the 2020 election out of 158 million cast nationally.

PHOTO: Winning margins in the seven swing states in 2020 (ABC News)PHOTO: Winning margins in the seven swing states in 2020 (ABC News)

PHOTO: Winning margins in the seven swing states in 2020 (ABC News)

The signs point to another close race

Harris and Trump have never been separated by more than 3 percentage points in national averages of 538 compiled polls since Harris took over from President Biden as the Democratic frontrunner in late July.

The two are in heat in Nevada and Pennsylvania, according to 538.

Pennsylvania is considered a possible tipping point for who will win the Electoral College. If Harris wins the state, along with the rest of the Midwest “blue wall” and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, she will get 270 votes. If Trump wins Pennsylvania and carries all the states he won in 2020, he would also have to flip Georgia to win.

In Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris has a 1-point lead over the former president. Polling averages show Trump leading by a single percentage point in North Carolina and by 2 percentage points in Georgia and Arizona.

These margins, however, would be within the typical margin of error of a poll.

With the 2024 race so close, a reminder of how few votes decided the 7 swing states in 2020 originally appeared on abcnews.go.com