Team Starmer learns election lessons from what Team Trump got right and what their sister party, the Democrats, got so wrong

November 22, 2024 5:37 p.m

Before Kamala Harris suffered her crushing defeat in the US election, Labor contributors were keen to talk about what Democrats are learning from their own election strategy.

The top labor figures flew to Democratic National Convention. There were excited briefings about how Starmer’s language about “breaking up the gangs” was adopted by Harris – as a way for the left to sound tough on their own terms on the often toxic issue of immigration. Two of Starmer’s former aides also argued that the Democratic nominee could provide “a combination of stability and the change that voters crave.”

It didn’t work out that way. Harris suffered a resounding defeat, and Trump won the White House, the Senate and the rest of the House of Representatives. Now, most of the attention is on what Trump 2.0 might do with all that power (“The risk is that he won’t be controlled,” says one veteran of American politics).

But in Downing Street, Starmer’s team are still reading the runes of this result – and the wider electoral implications. Team Starmer learns election lessons from what Team Trump understood too what did their sister party the democrats do so badly.

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With Downing Street on a more political slant since the exit of longtime civil servant Sue Gray and the promotion of Morgan McSweeney, a Labor campaigner by trade, to chief of staff, this learning will become more visible in the coming months. “There are a lot of lessons for us,” says a Downing Street aide. “Some of them are uncomfortable.”

First, about the campaign. It appears that the labor volunteers who so infuriated Trump’s team by campaigning for Democrats in swing seats failed. There are also lessons to be learned about the growing importance of alternative platforms compared to legacy media. Donald Trump has visited a whole host of “tech bro” podcasts — most notably that of the influential Joe Rogan (who Harris declined an invite to because he feared it would upset his progressive base). Trump’s team sees this as one of the reasons he was able to win over so many young people.

For Labour, non-Westminster-centric podcasts have already been flagged as an important campaign tool. They had one team member focused on talking to influencers in the summer campaign – but that activity is likely to increase ahead of the next election campaign. But don’t expect it to be heavy on the so-called A-listers and glitterati – the US election result is also seen as a reminder of the risks of looking like a party is part of the elite. “There were so many celebrities,” says a government adviser.

Instead, the election result points to the need to drill down on bread-and-butter issues. “It’s a reminder of what matters,” says a senior Labor adviser. “More money in pockets, immigration control and smaller NHS waiting lists.”

While the Democratic loss had unique factors — such as the front-runner (and the president) dropping out after a disastrous debate — it also pointed to a political truth: In times of high inflation, incumbents suffer.

That’s a lesson Starmer and Reeves will nervously reflect on, with news that inflation has picked up slightly this week. In addition, economic analysis of Reeves’ first budget suggests it could push inflation higher. Now, the current number – around 2 percent – ​​is a long way from 12 percent – ​​but it’s something to watch.

As Starmer’s former policy chief Claire Ainsley told me recently Women with balls podcast: “Because the Labor government is absolutely focused on living standards, basically people feeling that their wages are moving forward in a fairly short space of time is going to be really important. And Labor has the evidence to be able to say, yes, I feel better this way compared to how I felt under the Tories, and they need to keep their eye on that ball.” This sentiment is shared within the government.

But perhaps the biggest lesson—and the one that could have the most notable effect—is immigration. Harris was seen as a failure on border control, even with solid inspiration from the Labor Party.

Coming from the opposition, talking tough was always going to be an easier option for Starmer than a Liberal leader whose party is in office. It means some in the government are already debating whether to develop a tougher line on border control.

Yvette Cooper is considering spending money on agreements with third countries to process asylum seekers. There is a view that the status quo will not work – giving up Rwanda without an alternative means the numbers are not moving in the right direction.

And it’s not just the Tories who are throwing fire when Nigel Farage’s reform party could be the main beneficiary. Rumors of a reshuffle in the new year are fueling. No one is sure how drastic it could be. Talk of a reshuffle is often overstated – and Starmer paid close attention to discussions of long-term decisions that would suggest allowing secretaries of state to stay in office for a while. Junior ministers could be most at risk – because, in the words of one aide, “a lot of them were Sue’s picks”.

But Starmer and McSweeney could also make some tactical and political moves. The Labor right has long criticized Ed Miliband on energy. And next week, MPs will vote on assisted dying, with questions being asked about Streeting’s ability to continue her health if the bill is passed, given she has voiced her opposition.

Yes, it’s a free vote – but is it viable for him to lead implementation? A good solution, argues one Labor figure, might be to “move Wes to the Home Office” where he can tell his party the hard truths (as he is wont to do on boats). There were also rumors that David Lammy could be moved given his previous criticism of Trump. But as one government adviser says: “Find me a Labor politician who hasn’t ousted Trump.”

Regardless of the problems that Trump will bring to Labor in the new year when he enters the White House, the new government is already on its way to taking some of its clean slate – not all of it will be comfortable for the party faithful.