The expanded 12-team college football playoff has created new value in college football predictions. Scoreboard optics matter more than ever and to more teams than ever. Teams like Tulane, Ohio State and Notre Dame have incentives to not only win, but win comfortably.

It’s no longer just about which coaches tend to reward their boosters who insist on betting on their alma mater every week (looking at you, James Franklin). Now it’s about the teams that must continue to impress the selection committee each week in order to protect their possible postseason interests.

Three of them lead this week’s best college football picks.

Week 12 college football predictions

Choices made on 11-14. Click on each pick to see the full analysis.

College Football Week 12 Predictions

Tulane -7 at Navy

Best Odds: -110 at BetMGM

If Boise State loses just once — and as unlikely as that may seem, please remember that the Broncos had a surprisingly competitive game against Nevada last week — then an interesting conversation will erupt in the Boise State vs. Tulane Green Wave. If the Broncos lose in the Mountain West championship game, they wouldn’t even be in the Playoff contention.

Tulane has a viable path to the College Football Playoff, but it needs to plan like it’s in that debate, like Boise State will lose at San Jose State this weekend. Valul Verde needs to impress every week.

And this is an easy week for Tulane to impress. All due respect to the troops, but a dominant defensive line has already shown The MarinesThe current triple-option offense struggles against a stout front as much as ever. Notre Dame devastated the Midshipmen’s offense, and the Green Wave should do so as well.

Head coach Jon Sumrall always puts together a defense that wreaks havoc, and his first in Louisiana is no different. The Green Wave rank 14th in the nation in causing 18 turnovers, in large part because they have recorded 64 tackles for loss this season, including 28 sacks, the No. 22 and 13 respectively in the country. Tulane will be part of the Navy pitch far too often for the Midshipmen to excel on Saturday.

With a moderate offense of their own, the Green Wave should climb that score, but will stand out due to their defensive dominance.

Get more CFB picks from the College Football 134 podcast

Join Douglas and co-host Andrew Caley on the College Football 134 podcast, published every Tuesday and live on It covers the YouTube channel every Saturday at 9 o’clock

Check out Tuesday’s latest episode below, which includes other thoughts rooting for Tulane this weekend:

Ohio State -28.5 NW

Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings

Wait, why did this spread go down this week? Is someone worried about Wildcats of the Northwest did he fight That difference was -30.5 on Sunday. Sure, those are two relatively meaningless numbers, but still, why?

Instinct says it’s time. Well, for one thing, this Northwestern home game isn’t played right on the shores of Lake Michigan. Part of the reason the Wildcats “built” Martin Stadium, the temporary stadium located on a stray point of Lake Michigan, was because optimists suggested the Cubs could play in October. Yes, those were crazy thoughts.

Second, the weather in Chicago on Saturday looks good. Winds could pick up 10 or 15 miles per hour, but that’s not high enough to worry about a game. North of 15 mph is when you start paying attention.

But even if the weather rises, this version of the Ohio State Buckeyes they wouldn’t care as much as they did in the past.

These days, the Buckeyes have as strong a passing attack as they do a passing one. They’d rather throw the ball, but with both TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins behind a quality offensive line, they’re finding a lot of quick success.

Every part of Ohio State’s offense should excel against an average Northwestern defense, while the Wildcats likely won’t reach double figures. Taking a five-score favorite is an ambitious pick, yes, but Ohio State should score in the 30s here by default.

Notre Dame -22.5 vs Virginia

Best Odds: -110 at BetMGM

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish they have covered the gap in their last five games by an average of 14 points. They’ve won their last six Senior Days, all by lopsided scores, the closest being by 24 points, all against overmatched ACC foes, three of which now have head coach Marcus Freeman on staff.

In other words, there are both current and past trends that expect Notre Dame to win this game handily.

The Irish are in the mix to host a first-round playoff game. That subsection of the committee’s weekly rankings is the most in flux, with Georgia and/or Alabama poised to move past Notre Dame again.

The Irish want that Playoff game at home. Everyone does, of course. But there may be even more of an emphasis in South Bend, Freeman somewhere between wanting and needing to give the Irish faithful that sign of progress after so many losses in his first three seasons as head coach.

The good news for Notre Dame is that its rushing offense has become dominant, lifting the Irish floor at once. The Virginia Cavaliers The rushing defense is only decent, so the Irish should start their scoring down the field. And as soon as they are ahead, they will stifle any one-dimensional offense. This has become defensive coordinator Al Golden’s favorite Saturday activity.

The Notre Dame senior’s last six days have all been against overmatched ACC foes.
Last three (with Marcus Freeman on staff): 48-2.3 average final score.
Last six: average final score of 45.2-8.
Closest margin: 24 points.

No, Virginia, there is no Santa in November. pic.twitter.com/PEhMfjrlAi

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 14, 2024

Hawaii -2.5 at Utah State

Best Odds: -110 at FanDuel

The Utah State Aggies they are 2-7 against the spread this year. Yes, it’s bad enough on the surface, but then you realize that expectations were low for the Aggies before the season, in large part due to the abrupt and contested firing of former head coach Blake Anderson in July. Immediately, the program was in turmoil.

And yet, Utah State has regularly fallen short of expectations. It was favored against FBS competition three times, losing all three games. In the other five FBS games, the Aggies were the weakest by 19 points.

So, logically, this game fits better into the category where Utah State is 0-3 ATS this season. At the risk of being harsh, no team has given up more clearly this season than the Aggies.

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors you still have one more chance at a bowl game. In Timmy Chang’s third season after taking over a massive Todd Graham disaster, that would be a resounding accomplishment.

The Rainbow Warriors need to win their final two games to even be in contention, but they will also be favored to close out the year against New Mexico. Finishing the season at 6-6 — but with two wins against FCS-level competition — is well within reach.

Hawaii will have Utah State’s two best units on the field, and any home-court advantage the Aggies have has been shaken by their general ambivalence at this point.

Florida Atlantic Money Line at Temple

Best Odds: +125 at BetMGM

Look, none of these teams are good. Both are 2-7 outright this year again Temple Owls they have a better record against the spread, 4-5 to 3-6. Then again remove FAU Owls he didn’t score much on FCS-level Wagner, and his ATS record jumps to 3-5.

In a meeting of two disasters, isn’t it worth taking the underdog’s variation?

How about when the underdog should have the best two units on the field and it’s just one person who isn’t right because of nominal home field advantage? Are you really willing to give up value out of respect for Temple’s advantage?

Nothing nice can be said about any of these teams. This is a value play based on the fact that it’s not a mess-loving pet pick’em, one justified by the recognition Temple’s defense gives up 4.5 points for every opposing quality drive, the no. 129 in the country.

If FAU can manage just three quality drives, they might end up with 21 points with little stress, and that might be enough to win this meeting of the ugliest pigs in the gutter.

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