Another SEC clash with plenty of College Football Playoff implications takes place on Saturday when No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers visit No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs.

Tennessee (8-1, 5-1 conference) is currently on top SEC standingswhile Georgia is fourth (7-2, 5-2). The Vols are 6-1 to win the conference, behind the No. 3 Texas Longhorns (+115) and No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide (+375). Georgia is 12-1.

Both Georgia and Tennessee are well positioned in the CFP ranking heading into the Week 12 matchup, the Bulldogs -450 to make the playoffs and the Vols -320. Georgia is the fourth pick to win the national championship at 9-1 and Tennessee is seventh on the board at 18-1.

Kickoff at Stanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia is Saturday at 7:30pm ET ABC/ESPN+.

Odds current at the time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

lines

Spread: Georgia -10
Moneyline: Georgia -400, Tennessee +300
Over/under: 48.5 (over +100/under -120)

Distribution in the first half: Georgia -6.5 (-110), Tennessee +6.5 (-110)
Money line for the first half: Georgia -290, Tennessee +225
First Half Total Points: 24.5 (over +102/under -125)

Maldonado’s Pick: First Half Tennessee-Georgia UNDER 24.5

The first half of this game feels like a slow-motion chess match between two highly skilled but risk-averse grandmasters. Methodical, strategic and low scoring.

Tennessee’s offensive woes, especially in the first half, are a crucial factor. The Volunteers’ inability to score in the first two quarters of the last three games is likely to persist against the brick wall of Georgia’s defense. Despite managing 20 points in the first half against Mississippi State last week, they mustered just seven against Kentucky and were shut out by Alabama the past two weeks.

The Volunteers’ offensive struggles are compounded by their porous offensive line. True freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava he’s been sacked 16 times this season, with seven of those coming on the road. Tennessee’s penchant for penalties (ranking 120th overall and third in the SEC) further hampers their offensive production. Iamaleava’s inconsistency in passing — he has topped 200 yards in just three of nine games — suggests he could face significant challenges, a stout Georgia defense that ranks 21st against the run, which would could force Iamaleava into more passing situations.

Georgia’s offense, despite its reputation, is not without its own weaknesses. The Bulldogs’ ground game has been particularly ineffective, averaging just 119 rushing yards per game (104th in the FBS), making their offense more predictable. Quarterback Carson BeckThe turnover issues are concerning as he has 12 interceptions, nine of which have come in the last four games. Turnovers could prevent Georgia from putting up points against a Tennessee defense that has given up just 13 touchdowns this season, tied for fourth.

Beck struggled with his decision-making, often forcing passes into tight coverage, and he admitted as much.

“There are times when it’s okay to throw it away if it’s not there,” Beck said. “It’s something I think we did a lot better last year.”

Much like chess, where playing cautiously leads to long, low-scoring matches, this game feels set up for a similar outcome that’s more about defense and attrition than explosive scoring, making under 24.5 a logical choice and calculated.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Georgia has swept five straight meetings against Tennessee, but is just 1-7 ATS as a favorite this year.

• Tennessee has the second-worst ATS record as a road underdog since the start of last season.

• Georgia is 1-7 ATS as a favorite this season, second worst in the FBS (min. 5 games; Arizona 0-5 ATS).

• Tennessee is 3-0 ATS against ranked teams this season, second best in the FBS (Mississippi State 4-0 ATS).

• Georgia has failed to cover in three consecutive home games; The Bulldogs have never lost four straight ATS in a season under Kirby Smart.

• Georgia is 3-5 ATS in its last eight in a loss (including an ATS loss earlier this season) and 8-6-1 ATS in a loss under Smart.

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