SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Based on satellite data, the system in the Caribbean was classified as Tropical Depression Nineteen earlier today. Low level circulation has been established and although movement has been brisk westward, it is forecast to slow moving forward.

It is currently impossible to predict what, if any, local impact will arise from Tropical Depression Nineteen, which may soon develop into Tropical Storm Sara. However, we can consider a number of possibilities. Depending on the eventual track, the range of possibilities is wide. From sunny and breezy skies to strong winds and heavy rain. With this range in mind, it’s important to stay on top of the forecast as we approach the weekend. Remember, it remains very possible that a hurricane will enter the Gulf next week and likely head toward Florida. It may just be a mid-week wet spell next week. It’s too early to know.

Forecast models suggest that Nineteen will initially spend considerable time near the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. High mountains in these areas could significantly influence cyclone development, although the magnitude of this impact is uncertain. Some models also predict that the system may pass over the Yucatán Peninsula before exiting the Gulf waters. Again, the effects of any interaction with the ground on the strength or track of the storm are unclear, leading to a low-confidence long-term forecast.

Once in the Gulf, the cyclone is likely to be guided by a trough of low pressure and strong upper-level directional winds that would take it to the north, northeast, or east. However, it is uncertain where or when it will interact with these winds, making it difficult to identify potential impacts on Florida.

Despite these uncertainties, models currently show strong agreement in directing a significant weather-producing cyclone to the west coast of Florida by the middle of next week. So there is a realistic threat of an impact somewhere along the west coast of Florida or possibly Cuba.

In the short term, our weather looks great! Although the humidity may rise slightly today, we won’t see any rain. Temperatures will stay in the mid-80s – still warmer than average, but cooler than earlier in the week.

By tomorrow a stronger cold front will move through, shifting the winds to the north and bringing much drier and slightly cooler air. Afternoon highs will reach around 80 degrees, which is normal for this time of year, with low humidity and crisp, cool nights.

Please remember to check the forecast over the weekend for tropical updates.

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