The Atlantic of 2024 Hurricane season may not be over with the US., even after five Gulf Coast hurricanes and damage estimated at over 120 billion dollars.

A tropical wave is moving west into the Caribbean and is likely to become a tropical storm over the next two days, with a 90 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday morning. It would be the 18th named storm of the season and is in line for the name Sara.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later, the hurricane center said.

At least one computer model used to help forecast hurricanes indicates the potential for Sara to become a major hurricane that threatens the Florida coast next week, but it remains to be seen whether it heads for the Gulf of Mexico, with several factors at play. Meanwhile, heavy rain is forecast for the next day in Jamaica.

More: Storm Watch: The Caribbean system could become Hurricane Sara by next week

An official forecast track will not be available until the disturbance becomes an organized tropical storm with a defined center of circulation. However, the hurricane center said on Wednesday that “further development is possible as the disturbance moves across the western Caribbean over the weekend.”

The storm could take advantage of “some unusually favorable late-season conditions” to strengthen by early next week,” wrote Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm surge expert at WPLG-TV in South Florida. in his daily update on Tuesday.

Water temperatures in the Caribbean are warmer than normal, but temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have been at a record high this week, according to the data. graphs of ocean heat content maintained by Brian McNoldy, senior research fellow at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School. Warm water helps fuel hurricanes.

Lowry and other forecasters say two key issues will determine whether the disturbance could threaten the US. By early next week, the system is expected to begin moving slowly northwest, but exactly when it turns could make a difference in both the strength and location of the system. .

“If a tropical storm or hurricane forms in the western Caribbean, the track is likely to be heavily influenced by the position of a high-pressure dome along the South Atlantic coast of the United States,” AccuWeather said Tuesday.

For now, the chaotic nature of the model tracks points to “high uncertainty” in the forecast, Lowry said. If the storm moves over Central America or Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, the interaction could weaken. However, he said, if it remains offshore in the Caribbean, there is an increasing chance that it will strengthen and be driven into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Given the environmental conditions in the region, several models used to forecast potential intensity suggest a potential hurricane could reach Category 3 status with winds in excess of 111 mph, and one suggests it could reach Category 3 status 4, according to the website. Tropicaltidbits.com, maintained by meteorologist Levi Cowan.

If a sixth hurricane were to make landfall along the Gulf of Mexico, it would tie the 1886 record for most landfalls in one season on the US Gulf Coast, McNoldy posted on social media Tuesday. At five so far this season, 2024 is tied with 2005 and 2020 for the second-most Gulf hurricanes on record in a season.

Hurricanes in November are quite unusual. Only three hurricanes have previously hit the US or made landfall in November, one each in 1861 and 1935, and Hurricane Kate in 1985. according to NOAA records.

A busy 2024 hurricane season

So far, 2024 is the 11th most active season in terms of hurricane days and accumulated cyclone energy since meteorologists began observing hurricanes by satellite in 1966, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior researcher at the University of State of Colorado. The Cyclone Energy Index calculates the total energy of a season based on the storm frequency and maximum wind speed of each hurricane over its lifetime.

Among the most active seasons are 2005 and 2020, the two years the hurricane center exhausted its first roster and switched to a reserve roster, according to Klotzbach. Seven of the most active seasons have occurred this century.

The 2024 season matched the preseason forecasts of both NOAA and Colorado State University for hurricanes and major hurricanes quite well. Only named storms are behind under those seasonal outlooks. Although the season got off to a busy start, including a record Beryl, a lull in August caught forecasters by surprise, but 12 named storms have developed since early September.

Hurricanes that made landfall in 2024

Beryl – Matagorda County, TexasDebbie – Taylor County, Floridaand South CarolinaFrancine – Terrebonne Parish, LouisianaHelen – Taylor County, FloridaMilton – Sarasota County, Florida

Read more about the 2024 season

Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She has written about hurricanes, tornadoes and severe weather for more than 30 years. Contact her at [email protected] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tropical Storm Sara could form into a hurricane