JOHANNESBURG (AP) – Mozambique was a witness protests whereas the country’s disputed results in the October 9 election, in which the candidate of the ruling Frelimo party, Daniel Chapo, was declared the winner.

At least 30 people have died in what is likely to be post-election violence at the top of the agenda of next week’s Southern African Development Community summit.

Venancio Mondlane, the independent candidate who came second in the election with 20% of the national vote, disputes the election result and called for nationwide protests.

This is why post-election violence is a concern for the region:

STABLE DEMOCRACIES AND CREDIBLE ELECTIONS

Some Southern African countries are known to have held free and fair elections, with at least two elections in South Africa and Botswana being held this year.

In Botswana, the ruling party was ousted from power after 58 years power transfer it took place in a few days.

South Africa’s ruling party also lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994 and formed a unity government with opposition parties.

Mauritius held elections on November 10, in which the ruling party lost a landslide. Namibia it is expected to go to a vote later this month.

However, South Africa continues to face challenges related to contested elections, with Mozambique being the most recent.

European Union team of observers alleged irregularities in the October 9 elections, including the modification of some results.

Even in the previous local elections in 2023, the ruling Frelimo party was accused of vote rigging, allegations it has consistently denied.

Zimbabwe has also seen several contested elections, with its 2023 election criticized by international observers as rife with irregularities and not respecting the country’s constitution.

REGIONAL TRADE AND ECONOMY

MOZAMBIQUE it is a crucial part of Southern Africa’s regional trade, sharing borders with South Africa, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Eswatini.

Instability in the country tends to spill over to its neighbors, many of whom already face challenges related to illegal migration.

South Africa has closed its part of the Lebombo border it shares with Mozambique following recent protests. South Africa uses Mozambique’s Maputo port for some of its exports, and the border closure has blocked trucks carrying minerals to the port.

The Freight and Rail Association of South Africa estimated that the border closure cost the South African economy at least R10 million ($555,177) every day the border is closed.

The Minerals Council of South Africa estimates that 53% of the chrome ore and concentrate exported by South Africa in 2023 was exported through Maputo.

Mozambique has an abundance of mineral resources and the discovery of natural gas in 2010 is expected to revive its economy as it appears to be more engaged with its neighbors in the energy sector.

POLITICAL STABILITY

Mozambique is still in the shadow of a bloody 15-year civil war fought by leftist Frelimo against the rebel group Renamo after independence.

The country held its first elections only in 1994, and this was the first vote in which there were no armed groups linked to political parties after a process of disarming the militias. It is fighting an Islamic State-affiliated group that has launched attacks on communities in the northern province of Cabo Delgado since 2017.

About 600,000 of the 1.3 million people who fled have since returned home, many to devastated communities where homes, markets, churches, schools and health facilities were destroyed, according to the United Nations. said earlier this year.

Neighboring countries host large populations of Mozambicans who travel there for work and economic opportunities, and any further instability is likely to exacerbate migration further.