Of late, every election in Uttar Pradesh (UP), be it single seat or multi-seat, has turned into a battle for political parties; or at least that’s what the parties seem to do in the polls.

PREMIUM

Political analysts recall how Samajwadi Party (SP) founder president Mulayam Singh Yadav once chided his son Akhilesh Yadav for campaigning in a bypoll soon after he became chief minister and then -he also lost his chair.

Even chief ministers and leaders like Kalyan Singh, Rajnath Singh and Ram Prakash Gupta or before that ND Tiwari and Vir Bahadur Singh used to brush off questions about their plans to campaign for the polls, saying that their parties have competent leaders who they would conduct rallies and poll meetings. Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati, on the other hand, has rarely contested by-polls, let alone campaigns. But now in a charged political scenario, even Mayawati has fielded candidates on all the nine seats.

As UP heads into battle for nine assembly seats on November 20 — which numerically will make no difference to the health of the ruling BJP or the main opposition SP — Yogi has not only been on a campaign blitzkrieg electoral, but deployed an army of ministers, deputies and party officials for door-to-door campaigning in all constituencies. Yogi is determined to turn the tables on the SP after a rout in the recent Lok Sabha elections that put him under pressure, with some ministers calling for a change of leadership in the state. From granular poll management to bombarding polarizing slogans, Yogi runs the show. He targets SP and describes PDA (Pichda or Backward Classes, Dalits and alpsankhyak (minorities) as “Dangal’s Production House, Apradhi”.

The SP, on its part, reaffirmed its commitment to the PDA formula by fielding five women election candidates from the Muslim, OBC and Dalit communities. The SP leadership is keen to continue the winning momentum till the 2027 assembly polls besides remaining critical of the opposition bloc. The Congress leadership agreed to let the SP contest all the nine seats, much against the wishes of state leaders. However, the results will be a message to their cadres as well as a test of their politics.

The nine seats that witnessed a direct fight between Yogi and Akhilesh are spread across the state – Meerapur (Muzaffarnagar), Kundarki (Moradabad), Khair (Aligarh) and Ghaziabad in western UP, Sisamau (Kanpur), Karhal (Mainpuri) and Katehari (Ambedkarnagar) in central UP, Majhawan (Mirzapur) and Phulpur (Prayagraj) in eastern UP. The SP had won four of these seats, the BJP and its current allies five in the 2022 assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh.

The contest is exclusively on caste and communal lines, with the development of backward constituencies figuring only in talk and poll promises. Caste sentiments are so strong that they filter down to prominent OBC and Dalit castes – like Yadavs and Shakya in Karhal or Kurmi Vs Nishad in Katehari; Meerapur and Kundarki will vote on communal lines with Phulpur not far behind.

Initially, 10 seats were to go to the polls. Milkipur (Ayodhya), which sent its MLA SP Awadhesh Prasad to the Lok Sabha from Ayodhya, was the highlight of the poll show. But the Election Commission of India postponed the Milkipur election due to technical reasons.

The focus is now on the Karhal seat in Mainpuri, the stronghold of the Yadav family, which has never lost an election there since the early 1990s. Nathu Singh won his first election in 1957 as a member of the PSP (Praja Socialist Party). After that, the socialists won the seat under different banners — Swatantra Party, Lok Dal and BKD. Thus, it is a tough call for the BJP, which used the “Baramati (Maharashtra) formula” to embarrass the Yadav clan.

In the same way that the BJP fielded Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra against Supriya Sule, daughter of veteran politician Sharad Pawar, the BJP found a disgruntled member of the late Mulayam Singh Yadav’s family: Anujesh Yadav is the son-in-law of Mulayam’s brother, Abhay Ram and brother-in-law of SP MLA Dharmendra Yadav. Anujesh’s mother Urmila Devi had twice represented SP in the UP assembly. She was elected from the then Ghiroru assembly constituency, where the party still has some support.

Yogi used a two-pronged strategy in addition to forcing a contest within the family. First, he tried to exploit the sensitive religious sentiments of the Yadavis by raising the Krishna Janmabhoomi issue at his rally; The Yadavas, as we know, are devotees of Krishna. In his speech, Yogi said, “BJP now has a plan to respect people’s public sentiments for Lord Krishna of Mathura, but the SP leadership remains silent. After all, how long will Krishna Kanhaiya wait?” The Chief Minister worded his comments carefully as the Krishna Janmabhoomi dispute is sub-judicial.

Second, he hit out at Akhilesh Yadav for surrendering to the Congress, a party his father never trusted. Besides addressing the rallies, the Chief Minister has deputed ministers including Deputy CM Brajesh Pathak and Asim Arun besides several MLAs to counter the Yadav family’s hold on the seat.

In the SP camp, the family has gone all out to ensure that their candidate Tej Pratap Yadav, a close family member, wins the seats. Dimple Yadav, Dharmendra Yadav and Shivpal Singh Yadav are leading the campaign.

Another seat of interest is Phulpur, where the prestige of Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya, who had apparently raised the flag of revolt against Yogi, is at stake. Meerapur is a test of Union minister and Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Jayant Chaudhury’s popularity.

Sunita Aron is a consulting editor at HT based in Lucknow. You can find X as @overto. The weekly column, Keeping up with UP tackles everything from politics to social and cultural mores in the country’s most populous state. The opinions expressed are personal.