Sgt. Marine Corps Staff. Alex Aman looks down at the sight of an M110 semi-automatic sniper system at Robertson Barracks in Darwin, Australia, April 5, 2024. (Juan Torres/US Marine Corps)

Australia, already partnered with the Pentagon on several fronts, would welcome an even greater US presence under President-elect Donald Trump, Australian defense experts said on Wednesday.

The United States has sent an increasing number of troops down since 250 Marines began annual rotations in the northern port of Darwin in 2012.

The force, which operates in Australia from April to October, has grown to more than 2,000 members.

Australian security researchers predict the US, under Trump, will accelerate its growing military presence in their country as it seeks to deter China and disperse its forces to make them less susceptible to enemy missiles.

Australia is already spending $450 million in US funds to build air bases in the Northern Territory to house rotations of US B-52 Stratofortress bombers, General Kevin Schneider, commander of the Pacific Air Forces, said in July.

And the US and UK are building five nuclear-powered submarines for Australia, part of the AUKUS pact, for deployment in 2027, the first delivery in a program estimated to cost $250 billion over three decades.

The Trump administration will seek to increase the size of the Marine Rotational Force several times over, Australian defense researcher Allan Orr told Stars and Stripes via email on Tuesday.

“Probably at least 10,000 Marines and probably permanent if they get their way,” he said.

Australia would prefer a permanently stationed force of 10,000-20,000 troops, Orr said, adding that the Marines should move the force from Japan to Australia as soon as possible.

“Moving these positions out of a country where their presence is much more politically protested in Australia and out of most of the missile ranges in China would be ideal for both sides,” he said.

The US and Australian governments have wanted to increase the US military presence for more than a decade, Orr said.

“Otherwise, the US footprint is evolving too slowly,” he said.

Australia needs to add missile defenses, more runways for strategic bombers and enough troops to ensure the deployment deters China, Orr added.

Mike Green, head of the Center for United States Studies in Sydney, told The Australian in a November 7 report that the accelerated American deployment to Australia would be part of a bipartisan plan for a more distributed military posture in the region.

“They want to come in on day one and they want to accelerate defense cooperation with Australia,” he told the paper. “If there’s a problem, frankly, it’s that the (Australian) government will be under pressure to spend more on defence.”

Australian military spending roughly matches the NATO target of 2% of gross domestic product.

“He (Trump) could also ask for a further increase in our defense budget – perhaps up to 3% of GDP – over a number of years,” former Australian assistant defense secretary Ross Babbage told the Stars and Stripes, by email.

The Trump administration may want Australian units to operate more frequently with US forces in the Far East and for Australia to accelerate efforts to build missiles to supply Australian and US units, he said.

“Further US operations in and out of Australia are anticipated over time and are almost always universally welcomed here,” he said. “They are rarely controversial.”

However, Paul Buchanan, a US security expert based in New Zealand, said Trump could reduce US commitment to the Indo-Pacific.

“MAGA (Make America Great Again) people are neo-isolationists,” he said by phone Wednesday. “They want to withdraw US military commitments around the world.”

The U.S. Congress has rejected the AUKUS commitment, saying it distracts from efforts to increase the U.S. submarine force, Buchanan said.

“I’m not convinced (Trump) considers the Western Pacific a priority region,” he said.