Eric Hovde.

“Throughout my campaign, I emphasized the need to come together, restore trust in our elections, bridge divisions and focus on building a better Wisconsin for everyone,” the Republican Senate candidate said US. Eric Hovde in a newly released video.

But coming together doesn’t include admitting that Tammy Baldwin won the election. And “restoring confidence in our elections” now includes casting substantial doubt on the legitimacy of 108,325 votes in Milwaukee.

“I was shocked by what happened on election night. At 1 in the morning, I was getting congratulatory calls, and based on the models, it looked like I was going to win the senate race,” says Hovde.

But Hovde’s followers and modelers seem to have celebrated too soon.

At 23:05Urban Milwaukee reported that the city had 108,325 absentee ballots to report as of early morning. At 23:30using rough math to compare the number of outstanding absentee results to previous election results, Urban Milwaukee reported that Democrats could expect to win 90,000 votes from all of Milwaukee County’s outstanding ballots. The total would have been enough to erase the appearance of an advantage for Hovde. Other people have been reported analyzing the results ahead of absentee ballots in Milwaukee concluded that the Senate race would be close, while Donald Trump already appeared to have quite defeated Kamala Harris.

Hovde, in his video, claims Baldwin won nearly 90 percent of the city’s 107,568 absentee ballots cast in the Senate race. “Statistically, this result seems improbable because it didn’t match same-day voting patterns in Milwaukee, where we got 22 percent of the vote,” Hovde says. But the results POSTED on the city’s website, which were certified Monday, show Baldwin won 82 percent of the vote and Hovde 16.4 percent. Those percentages are consistent with what Urban Milwaukee recorded when votes were uploaded to the county’s website at 4:30 a.m. Hovde, according to city results, won 21.7 percent of the vote on Election Day, reducing more the gap.

Baldwin won about 70,000 more absentee votes than Hovde, giving him a statewide lead of about 16,000 once they were counted. The New York Times, based on unofficial results, currently has Baldwin winning Wisconsin by 29,116 votes.

The timing issue stems from a statewide restriction on early voting processing until polls open. Wisconsin is one of two states with a restriction on any pre-election processing, which results the hours of opening, sorting, processing and registration of ballots before any tabulation can be done. The problem is compounded as absentee ballots continue to arrive on Election Day, with the city’s total rising from about 106,000 to 108,325 by 8 p.m. the need to reprocess approximately 31,000 ballots o correct non-blocking of tabulating machines. Hovde’s video does not mention Oak Creek, which still had more than 12,000 absentee ballots at the time the Milwaukee ones were reported.

Hovde’s four-minute video raises some questions about election data that don’t hold up.

“Somehow, Harris only got 1,100 fewer votes than (Joe Biden) did, which is not consistent with most large cities,” says Hovde, citing a drop in the city’s population and pre-registered voting. But while city residents cast 2,000 more votes in a 2024 race that drew a statewide turnout surge, Harris received nearly 3,000 fewer votes than Biden, and Trump received 3,000 more than in 2020. Hovde does not mention the latter. , nor that Trump has surpassed him nationally.

Hovde also notes that certain precincts had turnout of over 150%. Such figures are calculated by the total number of votes cast compared to previously registered voters and can generate staggering percentages, but can often be attributed to high voter turnout and wards where residents move frequently and are not regular voters. Based on an analysis of Milwaukee County Board of Elections data, only one such precinct exceeded 150 percent: Precinct 187. The precinct in question consists of the western edge of Marquette University campus and includes substantial student housing.

An official canvass is to be completed by November 19, giving Hovde the chance to formally request a recount. But Hovde is already questioning the validity of such a process.

“There are significant limits to recounts because they don’t look at the integrity of a ballot,” says Hovde. He then pivots to attack the third-party candidates on the ballot and how they received support from people affiliated with the Democratic Party. “If neither candidate had been in the race, the outcome would be different today.” Maybe, but that’s neither illegal nor unusual.

Many people have contacted me with concerns about the voting inconsistencies they experienced on Election Day. Here are my thoughts: pic.twitter.com/zDvaeHaizw

— Eric Hovde (@EricHovde) November 12, 2024

As this article was being edited, the Milwaukee Election Commission issued a statement: “The Milwaukee Election Commission (MEC) unequivocally rejects Eric Hovde’s baseless claims about the integrity of our election process. Every aspect of MEC’s ​​operations was conducted with transparency and in strict compliance with established laws and procedures. It is both expected and common for absentee ballots—more than 100,000 in this case—to be counted and reported late on Election Night because of Wisconsin’s high voter turnout and the rigorous verification standards that MEC supports them. Unlike both Republican- and Democratic-led states that allow absentee ballots to be processed before Election Day, Wisconsin does not, which can result in a large number of absentee ballots being reported late at night. Wisconsin proudly allows same-day voter registration, and this historic election saw record turnout as many newly registered voters exercised their right to support their preferred candidates. MEC celebrates the dedication of Milwaukeeans to participate in the democratic process and is fully confident that Mr. Hovde’s allegations have no merit. Milwaukee voters can rest easy: MEC has conducted fair, accurate, and secure elections that fully protect voter rights and preserve the democratic process.