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Why give Matt Eberflus one last salute, Mary makes total sense
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Why give Matt Eberflus one last salute, Mary makes total sense

It was a Hail Mary pass that sent the Bears down into the bottomless pit they currently fall into.

Now, Matt Eberflus has thrown his own Hail Mary pass in the form of the offensive coordinator change from Shane Waldron to Thomas Brown. He can only hope there’s a Tyrique Stevenson guy on the other end who can sway them to a receiver and save his coaching regime.

It would be nice for Bears fans to think that a move like an OC firing could change their fortunes, but the truth is that there is a lot of work against them to prevent their spiral from stopping until it finally ends with the firing of Eberflus. There are examples of OC firings working for a team’s immediate success, most recently in Buffalo where they went 6-1 with Joe Brady after firing Ken Dorsey. But this was a team with a proven and winning structure already in place.

Brown before the game this time

The fact that Brown takes over a Bears offense with a system he’s worked with for three years gives him an advantage over last year, when he had to undergo an emergency procedure when requested by the Carolina Panthers.

Brown had only been working under Frank Reich and under this system for six games when he was first given the job of making the play calls on offense. Sean McVay’s three years with the Rams represent a better chance to succeed with the Bears than last year, when the Panthers averaged 11.4 points per game with his game.

Personnel and how he uses those players is the key.

It’s a very familiar situation for Brown, as his quarterback is a rookie and the first overall pick. And his team has one of the best defenses in the league.

Last year, Carolina finished fourth in the league in scoring defense, but still only won two games. The Bears are 13th in defense now, but seventh in points allowed and seventh in pass defense. They gave up the fewest passing touchdowns, ranked No. 1 in red zone defense and seventh in defensive third down percentage.

So there is evidence that better support for their defense could be an uplifting factor.

They played strong complementary football in their three-game winning streak immediately preceding the current three-game losing streak and Waldron’s firing.

The problems

There are three real problems with this team trying to switch offensive coordinators in the middle and expecting success.

One is a rookie quarterback. Another is how far they have already fallen into the pit of hopelessness. Last is their offensive line.

Even with the experience Brown got last year while working with a rookie No. 1 overall pick in Bryce Young, it wasn’t necessarily positive. Young had a better passer rating Frank Reich paid plays than when Brown called them, 76.5 to 73.1. He hasn’t improved and still looked bad this year until making big strides in the last few games under new head coach Dave Canales.

Expecting a rookie passer to understand any change in coordinators when they already have trouble understanding the NFL is a real ask. Maybe a veteran could handle it, but a rookie just halfway through his first season will struggle with all the changes.

Turning the team around requires more than just working with Williams to restore the players’ faith and trust in him. The teammates, themselves, already seem disappointed by the whole mess. That’s the second problem, how far down the drain they’ve already gone. Who already checked?

A few, like TJ Edwards, said the players didn’t.

However, Cole Kmet has seen players make mistakes in practice earlier this season, and on Monday, cornerback Jaylon Johnson was on WSCR AM-670’s Spiegel and Holmes for a regular radio spot and he didn’t act like how this situation would be exaggerated when asked if there were some players who weren’t working as hard as others.

“Yes, there is no question,” he said.

That may be the truth, but as long as that’s the case, it reflects poorly on the coaching staff and Matt Eberflus, who constantly talks about effort and bases his HITS principle on it.

Fundamental things like this just don’t change overnight in the middle of a season. There’s no way a team with the lack of momentum and direction depicted in these accounts can come back, regardless of coordinator or quarterback.

It’s all about supporting Williams

Ultimately, Williams is the future of the team and needs experiences to fall back on playing, but being beaten and tossed around like a rag doll will not keep him healthy or give him the valuable games needed to find success in the of late.

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The offensive line is ragged. There is no other way to say it.

When three starters are out, they play a third-string center at guard and the two tackles are injured, the scrimmages will continue. Teven Jenkins is their best lineman and has been injured five of the last six games without missing a start. The Bears gave up 38 sacks, second most in the league. They’ve allowed 15 in their last two games.

You can sit and watch Williams’ film forever and conclude that some sacks are his fault, but until they can give him the time he needs to settle in and throw more often, he has no value as their prize rookie to be right on the field. They can only hope that the line injuries stop.

For all these reasons, the Eberflus regime would seem doomed, and the downside is that they still have eight games to go.

If they act to fire a head coach now, it’s questionable how much value they’ll have for Williams over the final eight games.

Eberflus can at least lead a defense and call defensive plays. When Eric Washington did that in Carolina, it didn’t go well.

As long as Eberflus is around, their defense can at least provide some type of support for the struggling offense and give them a fighting chance to get into games.

That, in turn, provides more value for Williams’ development because he’s in closer situations and not always there in garbage time. It allows for one last vestige of stability that the QB can learn from.

So keeping Eberflus until at least the Hail Mary attempt with Brown is proven to have failed is fair to both him and Williams for stability and development.

Once they know the fate of the team for sure, then they can finally fire a head coach later in the season with a few games left, ending the Bears bad history of never firing a head coach during a season.

With Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit and San Francisco coming right up and a big break before the 49ers game, it shouldn’t be too long.

Twitter: BearsOnSI