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Small business owners in October were more optimistic despite record uncertainty
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Small business owners in October were more optimistic despite record uncertainty

Key recommendations

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reached 93.7 in the October survey.
  • However, the uncertainty index reached its highest levels in 51 years, probably because the survey was conducted before the election.
  • The election results could ease some worries and spur even more optimism.

Small business owners were more hopeful about the economy in October, despite uncertainty reaching record levels ahead of the election.

The National Federation of Independent Business’ (NFIB) small business optimism index rose 2.2 points in October to 93.7, as owners reported lower sales and persistent inflation.

“While optimism is rising on Main Street, small business owners continue to face unprecedented economic adversity,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a prepared statement. “Low sales, job vacancies and continued inflationary pressures continue to cause our main problems. Streets, but owners remain hopeful as they head into the holiday season.”

Uncertainty is growing ahead of the election

In October, small business owners also expressed their highest level of uncertainty in the survey’s 51-year history. The monthly survey of small business owners was conducted before the November election results, so the uncertainty is likely to decrease in future readings.

“With the election over, small business owners will begin to feel less uncertain about future business conditions,” Dunkelberg said.

According to Moody’s Analytics, small business owners may also be feeling more optimistic after Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election.

Moody’s research shows that small businesses feel better about their economic prospects when there’s a Republican president, and even more so when deregulation and tax cuts are part of the fiscal policy plan.

“There is upside risk for small businesses due to expected deregulation under the Trump administration and the potential for corporate tax cuts,” economist Justin Begley wrote. “However, sweeping tariffs will likely increase operating costs for many, pinching margins.”