The 12-team College Football Playoff continues to give us showcases of winning and going in, losing and going home in the SEC. When the Georgia Bulldogs take on the Mississippi Rebels this weekend, the winner can almost assume they’ll make the extended postseason, while the loser’s hopes should be completely dashed.

Those stakes could dictate this game as much as any other trends, with my Georgia vs. Mississippi and free college football picks betting on Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart’s desire to slow down a game. That won’t make for many fireworks after kickoff Saturday afternoon at 3:30 PM ET on ABC.

Georgia vs Mississippi prediction and best bet

My best bet
Under 55.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
last offseason, Mississippi he spent his NIL budget mostly on defenders and it paid off. The Rebels defense ranks 6th in the nation in expected points added (EPA) per snap against, according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.comand no. 7 in current SP+ ratings. It would be inaccurate to say that Mississippi is now a defense-led team. His offense is rated better in both regards, but Lane Kiffin has quality on both sides of the ball for once.

Most pertinently, the Rebels don’t give up explosive runs. This is most pertinent because explosives have become a necessity in Georgia. The Bulldogs don’t run often, relatively speaking – 6.6 percent less often in a given game state than the average team would run, the 10th lowest rate in the country. And when they do, they usually fail, leading the chains to just 44.1 percent rushing, 59th in the nation.

But when Georgia finds success in a hurry, she finds great success. The Bulldogs rank 7th in EPA per race. Now, quickly combine these thoughts: The Bulldogs rank 59th in rushing success rate, but 7th in EPA per rush. That combination speaks to Georgia’s explosiveness.

Now, if Mississippi’s defense will limit that, that alone may be reason enough to take this Under.

But fortunately, the other side of the ball emphasizes this expectation even more. Set aside every ounce of Kirby Smart’s preference for a defense-dominated game and focus of Georgia featured in Texas three weeks ago, holding the Longhorns to just 15 points. The Longhorns offense is similar to the Rebels in run/pass splits and much better once in the scoring range. However, the Bulldogs kept him in check.

Asking Georgia to do that again isn’t ambitious, and given the stakes of this game, it’s Smart’s intention anyway.

Georgia vs Mississippi parlay in same game (SGP)

Below 55.5

Georgia -2.5

Trevor Etienne always touches

In a moment of binary postseason stakes, who would you rather trust: Kirby Smart or Lane Kiffin? It should be a pretty quick decision.

As for Georgia quarterback Trevor Etienne, he has scored at least once in four of the last five games. The exception? When he got hit with Florida last week and eased up to be fresher this weekend, he took just seven carries, his fewest in two months.

The Bulldogs’ caution to Etienne last week should help his cause in Oxford.

Learn how to place a bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Georgia vs Mississippi Odds

Georgia vs Mississippi live odds

Georgia vs Mississippi Opening Odds

• Georgia vs Mississippi spread: Mississippi -3.5
• Georgia vs. Money Line Mississippi: Georgia -145, Mississippi +120
• Georgia vs. Mississippi over/under: 54.5

Odds courtesy of him BetMGM

Georgia vs Mississippi spread and over/under analysis

• In the summer, Georgia remained a 6.5-point favorite going into this game, a number that reopened at just -3 on Sunday. Difference? Especially in the Bulldogs’ performance, a few ticks below what was expected in the preseason.
• This week’s movement stopped on Sunday evening. This spread fell to -2.5 by the end of the weekend and did not move during the week.
• The summer margin of 54.5 did not need to be adjusted this week, with Sunday’s open hitting the market at 54.5 and the week not moving until late Thursday.

Georgia vs Mississippi betting trend to know

Of the 17 combined games played by either of these teams this season, 12 of them have gone to the Under. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia vs. Mississippi.

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