Lamu, Kenya – As the results of the United States presidential election came in on Wednesday, showing former President Donald Trump as the winner, relief was taking place more than 11,000 kilometers (7,000 miles) away in the Ugandan capital, Kampala.

“Sanctions are gone,” the East African country’s parliamentary speaker, Anitah Among, told parliament, hinting at her expectations for improved ties with the US under Trump. The speaker is one of a number of Ugandan officials who have been barred from entering the US in recent years because of allegations of human rights abuses against them.

But while some African governments that have faced accusations of authoritarianism in recent years may find reason to celebrate, sanctions are not the only thing that could be under Trump’s control, analysts warn: U.S. aid could also be .

Four days after Trump’s re-election, Africa is grappling with the prospects of what his second term could mean for the continent.

His victory on Tuesday over Vice President Kamala Harris drew immediate congratulations from African leaders, among those who quickly reached out to Trump, including Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed, Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa.

However, many experts believe Trump’s foreign policy will prioritize transactional relationships and move away from multilateral partnerships, with aid, trade and climate deals now uncertain. Trump’s focus, they warn, could be limited to how Africa fits into his broader geopolitical goals, particularly with regard to his rivalry with China. Those who fall in line will be favored, others will be pressured to conform — that, analysts say, has been Trump’s record during his first term in office, from 2017 to 2021.

“He’s a dealer. He trades based on what he can get,” said Christopher Isike, professor of African studies and international relations at the University of Pretoria.

Authoritarian allies

Patrick Bond, a professor and political sociologist at the University of Johannesburg, said he expected leaders who have faced scrutiny over their human rights records — such as Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame — to try to curry favor with Trump. Both Museveni and Kagame have long been important US allies, and their supporters have pushed back against more recent attacks on their human rights records, insisting the leaders remain very popular in their countries.

Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who has also faced US sanctions, also praised Trump’s victory, describing him as a leader who “speaks for the people”.

Samuel Oyewole, a Nigerian political science lecturer, noted that Trump is unlikely to let human rights and democratic norms drive his relationship with African leaders.

“The focus on human rights and democracy that was emphasized by Biden may not be prioritized for strategic interest under Trump,” Oyewole told Al Jazeera.

Trump could actually target countries perceived to be acting against US interests, Oyewole warned.

That could strain relations with democracies like South Africa, which has criticized US support for Israel and maintains strong ties to Russia and China. South Africa, which – despite recent tensions with Washington, relies on the US as a key economic and strategic partner – will not want that.

“I look forward to continuing the close and mutually beneficial partnership between our two nations in all areas of our cooperation,” Ramaphosa wrote in his congratulatory message to Trump on X.

Economic ties at risk

Trump’s return to office also puts the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) at risk, with the current deal set to expire next September, analysts say.

AGOA, first passed in 2000, gives African countries duty-free access to the US market for certain products. Trump, known for his aversion to multilateral agreements, could see AGOA as leverage to negotiate more advantageous bilateral agreements, risking the existing framework, experts warn.

“Trump will use all the tools at his disposal, including AGOA, to arm powerful African governments,” Isike said.

In December 2022, the Biden administration pledged $55 billion over three years to African nations, but that investment could be in jeopardy as Trump refocuses U.S. foreign aid toward his strategic priorities.

Bond warned that AGOA could be “up for grabs” as Trump capitalizes on these issues in negotiations.

Oyewole suggested Trump would also distribute strategic aid conditional on the continent aligning with his interests — as the incoming president has threatened to do with other parts of the world, such as Ukraine. “We can’t think of Trump as Santa Claus,” he said.

U.S. aid to Africa, currently about $8 billion annually, could face cuts under Trump, especially programs like PEPFAR (the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief), which makes up a significant portion of U.S. aid. Vaccination programs, HIV/AIDS programs, and reproductive health programs are among those at risk.

Additionally, analysts said Trump’s climate skepticism is a major concern for the continent.

He previously withdrew the US from the Paris climate accord, and his re-election raises fears of a repeat exit.

Bond underlined the potential fallout, saying Trump’s approach would be “catastrophic” for Africa, which bears the brunt of climate change disproportionately despite contributing minimally to global emissions.

By withdrawing the US from climate accords, Trump would not only reduce Africa’s access to international climate funds – needed to deal with everything from water scarcity to food insecurity – but would also encourage polluting industries globally, increasing Africa’s vulnerability to climate change, Bond said.

The geopolitical consequences

Trump’s victory could also have other geopolitical consequences for Africa.

The Biden administration has supported two permanent seats for Africa on the United Nations Security Council.

However, Oyewole pointed out that given Trump’s disdain for multilateral institutions, Africa’s long-standing aspiration for UN Security Council reforms may face new obstacles.

Trump’s rivalry with China also complicates Africa’s position, given China’s deep investment in the continent. Analysts expect Trump to pressure African nations to distance themselves from Beijing, creating tough choices for countries that depend on Chinese infrastructure funding and trade.

However, that pressure could backfire: experts say Trump’s detachment from Africa could spur the continent to seek alternative partnerships.

Isike, the professor, suggested that Trump’s neglect could inadvertently encourage African countries to eventually promote stronger intra-continental trade and deeper relations with nations in Asia and the Middle East.

“If Africa wants to continue receiving aid and handouts from the US, then (Trump’s election) is catastrophic,” Isike said. “But maybe it’s a good thing for Africa so we can look elsewhere for our trade partners and alliances.”