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    • NHC watches Hurricane Rafael, disturbances. See the impact in Florida
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    NHC watches Hurricane Rafael, disturbances. See the impact in Florida

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    Today can be election day but Florida residents are paying attention Hurricane Rafael.

    The November storm strengthened to hurricane-force winds, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Rafael expected to intensify rapidly over the next day en route to landfall in Cuba.

    ➤ Spaghetti patterns for Hurricane Rafael

    ➤ Weather alerts by text: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

    While current forecasts have the storm moving toward the northern Gulf Coast — and weakening in the Gulf of Mexico — this it doesn’t mean Florida won’t feel any impact. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the lower and middle Florida Keys Wednesday night and Wednesday.

    Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is also tracking a disturbance in the southwest Atlantic with little chance of development. AccuWeather meteorologists said this it could become a tropical depression or a storm this week.

    The next named storm of the season will be Sara.

    Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 7:00 p.m. Tuesday, November 5:

    Hurricane Rafael: What you should know

    Special note about the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm’s center. It does not depict the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

    Spaghetti patterns for Hurricane Rafael

    Special Note on Spaghetti Patterns: Illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five best performing models to make its forecasts.

    ➤ Spaghetti patterns for Tropical Storm Rafael

    Impact in Florida from Hurricane Rafael

    “The good news is that while Rafael could enter the Gulf as a hurricane midweek, there is very little chance of a storm. reaching land like a hurricane,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist with the USA TODAY network.

    For the Florida peninsula, Rafael will make its closest approach late Wednesday and Thursday.

    “If the storm strengthens more by Wednesday, it’s likely to pass a little closer to Florida, but in all scenarios it should stay southwest of the Keys,” Truchelut said.

    “The main impact of the storm on Florida will be an increased chance of rain between Wednesday and the weekend.”

    Tropical storm conditions are expected in the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

    ➤ Florida hurricane forecast: With Rafael looming, the storm-hit state should see only rain

    Heavy rain will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States during the middle to late week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and middle Florida Keys.

    A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and mainland southwest Florida,

    What else is there and how likely are they to consolidate?

    Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

    • Southwest Atlantic: An area of ​​low pressure may develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a few days.
    • Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week as it moves generally westward across the southwestern Atlantic.
      • Chance of training in 48 hours: Low, close to 0%.
      • Chance of Formation in Seven Days: Low, 20 percent.

    What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

    Hatched areas on a tropical map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome .

    The colors make it clearly visible how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.

    The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue a tropical advisory until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

    “If a system is close to land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing an advisory, even if the system has not become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” said Rome.

    Who might be affected?

    Some areas of Florida could feel some impacts, including tropical storm force winds, 1-3 inches of rain and even a tornado threat from Tropical Storm Rafael.

    ➤ Forecast of excessive precipitation

    ➤ Florida hurricane forecast: With Rafael looming, the storm-hit state should see only rain

    AccuWeather forecasters said the system in the southwest Atlantic it could become a tropical depression or a storm as it approaches the Leeward Islands and moves along the northern Caribbean islands this week.

    Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and to always be prepared. This tip is especially important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

    Weather observations and warnings issued in Florida

    When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Interactive map: hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

    Forecast of excessive precipitation

    Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via text

    What’s next?

    We’ll continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for ours special subscription offers here.

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