Gotha Democrat Leonard Spencer holds a razor-thin lead over defendant Rep. Carolina Amesty in House District 45. But a large swath of Orange County votes now puts his lead beyond the margin to trigger an automatic recount.

With all precincts reporting in Orange and Osceola counties, Spencer leads with 47,571 votes to Amesty’s 46,294. That 1,277-vote lead was much larger than election officials reported the night before, after Orange County officials opened more than 25,000 additional mail-in ballots, more than 3,000 of which affected HD 45 totals. As of midnight, Leonard only held a 217-vote lead. The gap between the candidates now stands at 1.36 percent of the more than 90,000 votes cast, well outside the threshold for a recount.

Orange County as of 6:30 a.m. Wednesday morning still had more than 11,000 uncounted votes. It’s not clear how many there were for HD 45 voters.

With more than 52 percent of voters in House District 45 supporting the Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, political observers have always predicted a tough re-election campaign for Amesty. This was before a grand jury defendant the Republican incumbent on four felony charges, all related to her previous work as an administrator at her father’s Central Christian University.

Amesty wanted voters to look past that and focus on her work combating sex trafficking by raising the age requirements to work in strip clubs and on the money he secured in the district for law enforcement and water quality.

“We’re a very important district, and I’m going to work in Tallahassee very strongly for this very, very important seat,” she said. “We want to make sure we have common sense legislation.”

Amesty has never addressed the details of the forgery allegations against her, but has maintained her innocence and pleaded not guilty in court. A preliminary conference is programmed for November 18.

Spencer argued that Amesty’s legal uncertainty presented an unacceptable situation for HD 45 constituents.

“It’s just unfortunate that we have a representative who has four felony charges and has been arrested,” said the Gotha Democrat. “What people want is someone with integrity who can work on their behalf.”

The situation marked a distinct change in fortunes for Amesty, which two years ago won a competitive primary and a closely watched general election. He won his seat over the Democrat Allie Braswell by 6 percentage points in 2022.

She won the seat because Republicans outperformed statewide with the governor. Ron DeSantis in the same year, ensuring re-election by a landslide 19 percentage points. And that’s especially so, even as DeSantis has already begun a political war with Disney, the district’s largest employer. This included eliminating the self-governing abilities the company had enjoyed on its Florida property since Walt Disney World first opened in Florida.

Battles continued with Disney early in Amesty’s tenure, and she stood by DeSantis as he signed new legislation impacting the company. She was with the Republican executive last year when DeSantis joked on stage in the district about opening a state prison on resort property.

Spencer in particular boasted a very different connection to the company. He spent nearly 16 years working for Disney, most recently leading a diversity and sustainability effort. Spencer has continued to consult with other Fortune 500 companies on diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) issues.

Republicans have notably disavowed DEI practices in public and private institutions and some of the only attack ads funded by the Florida Republican Campaign Committee. dragged Spencer for his work on the subject, even though he censored any mention of his history at Disney.

Spencer said he believes this is part of DeSantis’ extended campaign of revenge against the Disney corporation. “It’s just one example of the vindictive nature of what they’ve tried to do and continue to do to The Walt Disney Co. and try to stifle free speech,” he said.

Amesty, for her part, said that the state must treat each company equally and that the change in ownership governance was good for the constituents of HD 45. She also emphasized that she personally has nothing against the corporation.

“We have a lot of people in our district who either work at Disney or visit Disney,” she said. “I am one of them. I like to go to Disney Springs and enjoy dinner and do some shopping. They are a very important company in our district. But at the same time, we want to make sure there’s a balanced perspective when it comes to every corporation in our state.”

In particular, Amesty maintained a dollar advantage during the last reporting period raised and spent compared to Spencer. But Spencer saw much more in direct spending on his behalf by the Florida House Democratic Campaign Committee and the state party. The Orange County Democratic Executive Committee also spent heavily on attacks targeting not only Amesty, but other Republican politicians such as the County Commission candidate. Austin Arthurwho had posed in photos with the parliamentarian before his arrest.

The race demonstrated the importance of Central Florida to both parties, with Orange and Osceola being Democratic-leaning communities where Republicans have nevertheless made inroads at the local level.

As of August 20, HD 45 had 41,771 Republican voters, 36,873 Democratic voters, and 40,250 no-party and third-party voters. Republicans have aggressively tried to build on that lead this year, adding more than 2,000 voters to the rolls when Democrats added just under 1,600, according to the data. L2 data.

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