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A story about unfulfilled expectations
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A story about unfulfilled expectations

What a difference an eight-day stretch made to the Bears’ outlook this season.

They cruised through the win over Jacksonville, and the shine lasted until halftime.

Then came the last play of the game by the Washington Commanders, the reaction, the injuries and then a complete physical beating at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals and the sky falls to 4-4.

“I just know that’s where we are,” coach Matt Eberflus said. “That’s where we are and that’s where it is. We have to work from that. This is the reality of our situation.

“We’re a growing team. We’re an improving team. We haven’t gotten better the last two weeks in the win-loss column. We’ve got to keep finding answers and keep getting better to where we are in the season .We’re 4-4, we’re halfway there, and we’ve got to do a good job of finding answers in Patriots week.”

Eberflus may look at it that way, but it’s not as simple as that.

His opinion lowers expectations.

The players say expectations don’t matter to them, it’s from the outside. Expectations were certainly higher than 4-4 in the middle.

The perceived weaker schedule and an anticipated ability to win at least one or two road games causes disappointment.

It’s not too late for the Bears to change course, and a lot of it will depend on Caleb Williams playing better than he has in the last two games.

However, several key injuries make this more difficult. The toughest schedule any team faces in the second half of the schedule adds up to an even slimmer chance of the Bears becoming serious contenders for a playoff spot.

Here are the grades for the first half of the season, with nine weeks of the NFL’s 18-week schedule complete.

Running game: C

The Bears dropped from second in the league in rushing to 23rd. Anyone could see this coming, and it happened only in part because of

Justin Fields’ mechanism is shipped to Pittsburgh. The Fields effect in the running game has helped improve run blocking and running backs. The defense had to worry too much in the run game to stop everything. A decline was natural. But dropping from second to 23rd and 26th in yards per attempt is too steep a decline to pin everything on the loss of Fields.

The run blocking was inconsistent. D’Andre Swift got off to a slow start but has come on strong over the last five games with 505 total yards. Roschon Johnson also got off to a slow start after coming off an injury.

It’s the running game on offense where the Bears need to step up the most so they can operate the play action game and give the defense something to worry about so they can’t play Williams.

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Passenger Game: D+

The tendency is to look at the last two games when Williams has struggled, but for four straight games he has dropped a 106 passer rating and no one could be disappointed by that efficiency. The problem is that Williams’ strong games have come against weaker defenses, and a second half with six divisional games and one with San Francisco is looming. The lack of a target on Cole Kmet the past two games is more Williams’ fault for not following through on his progression to his tight end. Williams’ deep passes have been terrible, and it’s mostly because he’s not comfortable in the pocket and uses bad footwork.

The Bears brought in a new QB, added Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen and are 29th in passing, four spots worse than where they finished in 2023, with Fields at quarterback and Darnell Mooney and Equanimeous St. Brown at wide receiver instead of Allen and Odunze.

One positive for Williams is how he has kept his interception percentage low. He’s at 1.9% with five picks, and that’s often a problem for rookies.

The pass blocking was not effective. They are on pace to sack Williams 60+ times, but unlike when Fields was QB, not much can be blamed on Williams. It takes him 2.91 seconds to get away from the ball according to NextGen stats, and that’s better than Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, CJ Stroud, Jalen Hurts and Bo Nix.

Run Defense: C-

They declined almost as much here as they did in the running game. Last year, the NFL’s leading defense ranked 20th, in large part because of their last game when they struggled against Arizona.

The loss of free agent Justin Jones apparently took a bigger toll than expected, as he had 22 total tackles for losses over the last two seasons and no one has that kind of impact.

Gervon Dexter has been a strong passer inside, but his run defense needs to improve, and Andrew Billings has been more effective as a passer this year than as a stopper. He was the main force in their run defense last year.

Their tackle at linebacker wasn’t as solid, and it didn’t help playing without Jaquan Brisker as he frequently came up in run support. The same goes for Kyler Gordon, who has been out for two games.

Pass defense: B+

Even with two starters out for much of the first half, the Bears performed as expected or better in stopping the pass. Their interception total dropped to five for the season and has been on hold over the past two games and since the injuries to Brisker and Gordon. He also ranks eighth in preventing third-down conversions (33.02%).

However, they are top three in passing and red zone defense. They remained in or near the top 10 in sacks, even with Montez Sweat’s sack total down due to injury and the double team he faces more often. Players like Billings, DeMarcus Walker, Dexter and Darrell Taylor contributed to the rush-and-cover approach.

This would be an A if not for a pass and everyone knows what that was.

Special Teams: B-

Their major issues have been a punt coverage group that allows 11.5 yards per return and a punt coverage that gives up 29.3 yards. Actually hitting the football was no problem. Tory Taylor was worth more than the fourth-round pick Ryan Poles used on him because he’s not only good at getting it inside the 20, but also inside the 10. Cairo Santos missed two shots, one on a high snap .

They can’t claim to be the best special teams in the league until they start covering punts and punts better, but a solid performance nonetheless.

Coaching: D

Shane Waldron’s goal line play prompting Doug Kramer to go for it on fourth-and-goal against the Colts ranks among the worst short-yardage calls in Bears history.

Matt Eberflus’ tactical issues included plays that led to the Hail Mary pass and the blitz just before halftime against the Cardinals when it wasn’t necessary because it wasn’t the end of the game. Why blitz when they won’t be able to stop the clock to set up for a field goal?

The penalty situation with Tyrique Stevenson and his penalty all made for a chaotic first half of the season.

Staff: C

Ryan Poles valued his draft picks too much next year to trade for pass rush or offensive line help at Tuesday’s trade deadline, and it’s hard to question his logic. It’s up to Eberflus to win with this group and if he doesn’t do better then he might not even be the head coach next year. So why waste draft picks now?

The Poles had to swallow a bitter pill, and they did when they gave up Velus Jones Jr., their 2022 third-round pick.

The Poles deserve credit for bringing enough depth to the offensive line to get through yet another set of linebacker injuries, even if the starters haven’t been as consistent as they need to be.

The Poles’ signing of DJ Moore has yet to pay off as they have struggled to get him the ball enough times, but they know what he is capable of.

The Poles have a few other signing issues to deal with, including Teven Jenkins, but the real issues facing the team have nothing to do with personnel at the moment. Rather, they just need to play, they need reps on offense to start the running game and passing attack.

In total: C

The 4-4 record is disappointing, but it could be worse, and has been since Eberflus has been coaching. A .500 mark is the best the Bears have been under Eberflus at this point since he’s been the coach, but it’s likely they’ll need to continue to make progress if they expect to keep the regime together going forward.

Twitter: BearsOnSI