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Who wins the election? Legendary forecaster Allan Lichtman has “ravens” in his stomach

Online Niel November 6, 2024

Historian Allan Lichtman, who accurately predicted nine of the last 10 presidential terms electionshe said he was still thinking about it Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump but that he feels particularly nervous this year.

“I’ve been doing this for 42 years and every four years I get butterflies in my stomach,” he said. “This year, I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach.”

Lichtman said the candidates neck survey in key swing states it doesn’t make it jittery. He trusts his “13 Keys to the White House” system and he still believes Harris will become the country’s next president. However, in a live video interview with his son Sam on his YouTube channel, the presidential prognosticator explained that he is concerned about the fragility of democracy, noting that the political system hasn’t been around that long.

“For the entire history of mankind, there has been almost no democracy. Nations were ruled by the divine right of kings, by birthright, or by sword and blood,” he said. “Democracy is a very recent development.”

Historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman answers questions during an interview with AFP in Bethesda, Maryland, on September 7, 2024. Lichtman created a model using 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the incumbent party's presidential candidate will win or lose the next election. According to his model, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will win the US election in 2024. Lichtman has correctly called all but one election since 1984. (Photo by Pedro Ugarte / AFP) (Photo by PEDRO UGARTE/AFP via Getty Images ) — Historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman answers questions during an interview with AFP in Bethesda, Maryland, on September 7, 2024. Lichtman created a model using 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the incumbent party’s presidential candidate will win or lose the next election. According to his model, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will win the US election in 2024. Lichtman has correctly called all but one election since 1984. (Photo by Pedro Ugarte / AFP) (Photo by PEDRO UGARTE/AFP via Getty Images )

Both presidential campaigns have portrayed their rival as a “threat to democracy” during the 2024 cycle. Trump called Harris a “communist” and Harris called Trump a “fascist”. A The Washington Post poll was released in June showed that more than 70 percent of Democratic and Republican voters rated threats to US democracy as “extremely important.”

Who is Allan Lichtman?

Before receiving the title of “Distinguished Professor” from American University in Washington, DC, Lichtman, 77, earned a Ph.D. majoring in modern American history and quantitative methods at Harvard.

He is best known for helping to establish the presidential prediction system that uses thirteen true or false statements. When five or fewer are false, the incumbent party candidate is expected to win. When six or more are false, the challenging side is expected to win.

This year, Lichtman said at least eight of the keys Harris’ favor.

Contact Rachel Barber at [email protected] and follow her on X @rachelbarber_

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why election prognosticator Allan Lichtman is nervous about the 2024 election