Voters in 10 US states will decide this year on major ballot initiatives that either expand or restrict women’s access to abortion, a highly polarizing issue but one that some advocacy groups don’t think will affect turnout as much as some expected.

It is not clear what the extent to which this could have an impact Vice President Harris, who focused heavily on abortion access and reproductive rights in her presidential bid.

In the final race to Election Day, some doubt the issue has staying power go out to the voters to the same extent that it did during the 2022 midterm elections, held just months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

“I think Democrats are dramatically overestimating the power of abortion,” Shawn Carney, president of the pro-life nonprofit group 40 Days for Life, told Fox News in an interview.

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Vice President Harris delivers remarks during a campaign event at the Ellipse near the White House in Washington. (AP/Stephanie Scarbrough) (AP/Stephanie Scarbrough)

The nonprofit has a grassroots presence in all 50 states and has researched extensively in the 10 states that will directly vote on abortion measures this year: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New York , Nevada and South. Dakota.

Most of these ballot measures seek to reverse efforts in Republican-led states, whose leaders decided to restrict abortion in the wake of the Supreme Court’s June 2022 Roe decision.

Notable policies will be registered in Missouri, where voters will have the option to overturn the state’s near-total ban, and Arizona, where voters can amend the state constitution to allow abortions up to 24 weeks.

The most populous state deciding on abortion measures is Florida, home to more than 13 million registered voters.

Voters there will decide whether to lift an existing law banning abortions after six weeks and instead extend it to the point of fetal viability between 23 and 24 weeks.

“I think we have the best chance to win in Florida,” Carney said, citing the popularity in the state of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican and staunch supporter of pro-life issues.

“We have a great presence in Florida. We have great ’40 Days’ campaigns in this great state.”

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Signs are seen outside a polling station at the Palm Beach County Library in Florida during early voting in the presidential election. (Reuters/Marco Bello)

Harris and other Democrats have worked to highlight the new risks to abortion access women face. But it’s unclear what impact this will have on turnout in a presidential election dominated by economic and immigration issues.

Former first lady Michelle Obama devoted most of her speech at a Harris rally last week in Kalamazoo, Michigan, to highlighting the many ways women can see their reproductive rights further eroded.

“Your granddaughter could be the one who miscarried in the bathtub after the hospital turned her away,” Obama told the audience. “Your daughter might be the one terrified to call the doctor if she bleeds during an unexpected pregnancy.”

Importantly, voters in states where abortion is on the ballot will vote on it independently, meaning it is “decoupled” from their presidential vote and vote for down-ballot leaders. This means that some staunch pro-choice supporters could, in theory, vote for Trump and the Republicans in their states while also voting to support pro-life procedures.

This “uncoupling” effort would indeed reflect public opinion shifting in support of abortion. A Fox News poll this year found that a record number of voters now say that supports the legalization of abortion in some formincluding two-thirds who said they supported a national law that would guarantee women’s access to abortion.

Fifty-nine percent said they believed abortion should be legal in “all or most cases,” up from the previous high of 57 percent in September 2022.

Pro-abortion activists attend Rally for Our Freedom to protect abortion rights for Floridians in Orlando. (Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty)

But how much the abortion issue will drive turnout this year — for those who are either for or against the new ballot measure — is unclear.

National polls have seen abortion consistently ranked by voters as the third problem as important in the 2024 election cycle, behind immigration and well behind the economy.

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Only 15% of voters ranked abortion as priority no. 1 in 2024, according to a recent Fox News pollcompared to immigration, which 17 percent of voters said they consider the No. 1 issue. 1 and the economy, which a strong 40% of voters ranked as their top priority.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 election campaign, exclusive interviews and more at the Fox News Digital election center.