IN US FOCUS GROUPS over the past month, we heard from crucial voters in all seven swing states. I would like to say that our conversations in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and Georgia and North Carolina indicates a clear winner, but no. What they did was help reveal the forces at work.

If we are no closer to knowing the outcome of today’s election, we know more about what will be determined.

Here, then, is why Trump could win. After years of inflation, many say his presidency looks better in retrospect than it felt at the time. People look back to a time of relative prosperity—thriving businesses and affordable food—and a strong American presence in the world where Russia and Iran were contained and the southern border was reasonably secure. The better political culture that many voted for in 2020 did not materialize. The Biden administration’s liberal approach to cultural issues has disturbed many.

The legal cases against Trump, along with what some have seen as the increasingly tiresome and self-righteous tone of his opponents — not to mention President Biden’s description of his supporters as “garbage” — i -they strengthened rather than undermined his position. Democrats wasted faith by insisting that Biden was fully capable of a second term by the time Kamala Harris replaced him on the ticket.

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The resentment many felt at having a new nominee thrust upon them without telling them was exacerbated by her failure or refusal to be more clear about her policies and values. Voters wondered who would really trigger the decision in a Harris White House. Her public performances and interviews have not always inspired confidence, and people have noted her insistence on talking about her opponent when asked about her own plans.

Her talk of Trump as a “fascist” seemed to contradict her professed desire to end hatred and division. Some minority voters swung, attracted by Trump’s record and personality and repelled by what many saw as Harris’ bloat and the broader tendency of Democrats to take them for granted.

And here’s why Harris could win. As in their successful 2022 campaign, Democrats have relentlessly focused on reproductive rights, which are at or near the top of the priority list for many voters. Her ubiquitous campaign slogan — “we’re not going back” — is for many Americans a powerful call to resist a return to the chaotic circus of a Trump presidency and, for minorities in particular, to an old era in America they remember like nothing else. . but “great”.

If Harris has not clearly defined herself, this allows a large number of voters to project their hopes on her without risk of disappointment until she is safely inaugurated: those unhappy with the current administration can anticipate something different, and those who like the status quo. they can make sure she was a part of it. For many people, the fact that she is not Donald Trump is more than enough reason to vote for her, and she inspires far more enthusiasm and optimism than Biden.

Her opponent’s campaign has been haphazard and unfocused, repeatedly drawing attention to Trump himself rather than the issues Americans prioritize and on which he performs best. There is a palpable sense that Trump lacks the fire and drive that excited voters in 2016. Despite occasional hits, such as highlighting her support for state-funded sex-reassignment surgeries for prisoners, Republicans have failed to to paint Harris as a dangerous radical.

Although he has a slim lead in several state polls, some analyzes suggest Trump’s numbers are based on lower-propensity voters who are less likely to turn out. It still might — but when it comes to getting out the vote, Harris’ financial edge could really come into its own.

When we know the outcome, one of the paragraphs above – or some version of it – will quickly become received wisdom, and all sorts of surprising people will tell you that they thought things were going this way all along. But the truth is that both are true and both are happening at the same time. It’s just that, as of today, we don’t know which of these combinations of forces will prevail.

In addition, the result does not necessarily have to be very close. A candidate could win most or even all of the swing states by narrow margins, producing a substantial victory without the polls — which all operate within a margin of error — even being wrong.

These factors will also be part of why one side or the other feels hard to affect when they lose. With all these things in their favor, some will believe they were robbed of victory by the old electoral college / deplorable voters / shady goings on / outright fraud (delete as appropriate).

What they won’t be able to blame, I think, is misinformation. Imaginative versions of Trump’s history are well documented, and it is true that they are often picked up by his followers. But for every Republican who thought the 2020 election was stolen, we found an otherwise reasonable Democrat who told us the Butler assassination attempt was staged to boost Trump’s appeal — dead shooter, fire chief killed and all. Don’t let anyone tell you that the lie machine only works one way.

We have found that people tend to trust, at least tentatively, the process of casting and counting votes. Even so, many fear unrest, whoever prevails. Harris supporters say they expect Jan. 6 on steroids if Trump is beaten. Others point out that the left has form on this point as well, as residents of Portland and Seattle, among others, can attest.

Whatever happens after Election Day seems more likely to deepen divisions in the short term than to heal them, and the same could be true of the new president’s actions: If Trump really does use the power of the state to exact revenge on his opponents, while they will feign fear, or whether Harris is taking a narrow victory built largely on anti-Trump sentiment as a mandate to enact a radical agenda, she declined to elaborate.

But victory for one side or the other will not be the end of civilization, despite the epidemic of pearl-clutching (not least from those on this side of the Atlantic who like to look down on the US despite its success over the last fifteen years). or something like that compared to Europe and Great Britain). However, the divisions will continue no matter what, and either Trump or Harris will get the job done.

This is because whoever wins the election will not have conclusively won the argument. Competing worldviews will resist whoever confronts them. There are real, principled, and practical disagreements on everything from the economy, trade, tariffs, and energy independence to transgender rights, immigration, identity politics, reproductive rights, and America’s role in the world.

Whether Trump or Harris leave the political scene tomorrow, four years from now, or another decade, those debates will rage on and on. So it should. Anything else would be un-American.

The article was reprinted from https://lordashcroftpolls.com/ with author’s permission. You can find the original Here.