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    • Here’s Who’s Winning In Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls – Like Nate Silver, 538 Final Releases Predictions
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    Here’s Who’s Winning In Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls – Like Nate Silver, 538 Final Releases Predictions

    Online Niel Posted on

    The top line

    Vice President Kamala Harris was ahead by the slimmest of margins over former President Donald Trump in both guru Nate Silver’s and FiveThirtyEight’s final presidential forecasts shortly after midnight Tuesday, though both forecasts showed that the race for the White House remained a statistical tie on Election Day. as both candidates poll numbers in key swing states remained stuck.

    Key facts

    Silver released his final forecast after running 80,000 simulations of the race based on polling data and finding that Harris had a 50.015 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 49.985 percent — effectively a tie — after a minor Democratic comeback, which fell by 44% to 55% in early November.

    Also FiveThirtyEight ISSUED his final prediction for the winner of the presidential race, giving Harris the slimmest lead at about a 50 percent chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 49 percent.

    The Silver and FiveThirtyEight forecasts estimate the likelihood that either candidate will win and are separate from the polls, which estimate how much of the vote each candidate will get, but many national and swing state polls also remain roughly even.

    Harris leads Trump 49% to 48% with likely voters in the latest HarrisX/Forbes pollwhich was taken between Wednesday and Friday and has a margin of error of one point, and it rose 50%-48% in a Ipsos poll also on Monday.

    The widely watched Times/Siena poll released late last month represented a drop in support for Harris since the paper’s previous poll in early October showed her with a 49%-46% lead over Trump — and the paper called the results “not encouraging” for Harris, as Democrats won the popular vote in the last election even as they lost the White House.

    Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in one CNBC poll of registered voters released Oct. 24 (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47 percent to 45 percent in a Wall Street Journal Oct. 23 survey of registered voters (margin of error 2.5) — a swing in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal poll.

    Harris has erased Trump’s lead over Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her lead has shrunk over the past two months to 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight. weighted average of the survey.

    Important reminder: Presidential polls have been frequently wrong

    And there’s a lot of speculation about how they’re going wrong this year — and who they might benefit. Read all about it in this story.

    Big number

    1.2 points. That’s Harris’ average lead over Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics’ poll average it shows Harris by 0.1 and Nate Silver has Harris by one point to his Forecast of the Silver Bulletin.

    How does Harris fare against Trump in the Swing States?

    Harris enters Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvaniaand Trump leads North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevadaaccording to FiveThirtyEight polling averages. That means Harris would win the electoral college if the polling of every swing state is completely accurate — but many of the seven swing states, including crucial Pennsylvania, have margins of less than one percentage point.

    Surprising fact

    A survey from NBC News published Sept. 29, found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll — which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters — found that 54 percent support Harris, compared to 40 percent who support Trump and 6 percent who they said they were not sure who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly smaller than past gains for Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in polls in 2020 and by 50 points in the 2016 polls. The poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

    How has the debate affected the polls?

    Pre-debate polls found Harris’ vote surge appeared to be reaching a pay level, including an NPR/PBS/Marist study of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5, which showed Harris leading Trump 49 percent to 48 percent, down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that most respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena POLL of likely voters released on Sept. 19 found that a majority of voters across all demographics gave positive reviews of Harris’ performance in the Sept. 10 debate, with 67 percent overall saying he did well, compared to 40 percent who said the same about Trump. Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in a ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, virtually unchanged from her six-point lead with likely voters in the end of August and the beginning of August ABC/Ipsos polls — even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.

    Key background

    Biden abandoned of the race on July 21, after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He approved immediately Harris and she have announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around her, with 99 percent of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as his running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in the polls is coupled with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has almost doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46 percent in June to 85 percent now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has remained stagnant at 71 percent, according to a Monmouth University. POLL released on August 14.

    Further reading

    New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Trump leads Harris by 2 points, but 12% still decide (Forbes)

    State polls for 2024 election: Latest polls show Trump up in Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Nevada 2024 polls: Trump up 1 point in latest poll as Harris battles Latinos (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Georgia polls in 2024: Trump leads in latest poll, but undecided voters could deliver (Forbes)

    Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump up 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Michigan polls in 2024: Harris leads narrowly in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Pennsylvania 2024 Polls: Harris leads crucial state in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Wisconsin 2024 Polls: Harris leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris North Carolina 2024 Polls: Trump leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

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