The next four years of USA-Middle East politics hangs in the balance as the United States and the rest of the world prepare for the results of Tuesday’s election between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump.

Israel, Palestine and Lebanon

Perhaps the main foreign policy issues between the US and the Middle East heading into the election are Israel’s ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

Rasha Abou Jalal reported from Gaza City that while Palestinians in Gaza are skeptical of both candidates, many appear to favor Harris given Trump’s previous recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and hope that Harris will end Israel’s war in Gaza. Still, others believe that Trump’s close relationship with Israel can be used to end the war, making him the favorite.

Public opinion in Lebanon is less clear, although a Reuters report on Monday indicated that the Lebanese people doubt that the outcome of the election will affect them at all.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made his clear preference for Trump, believing it would weaken US rule over Israel and give Israel the green light to carry out a larger strike on Iran. Netanyahu and Trump have also maintained a close relationship even after Trump left office. At a rally on Oct. 23, Trump talked about his recent and apparently frequent phone calls with the Israeli prime minister, saying, “Bibi called me yesterday, he called me the day before,” using Netanyahu’s nickname.

Israeli society appears to be aligned with Netanyahu: Recent polls of the Israeli public have shown strong support for Donald Trump among both right-wing and centrist Israelis. Mazal Mualem reports. The poll, conducted by Israel’s Mitvim Institute for Regional Foreign Policy, found that 68 percent of the Israeli public “see Donald Trump as the candidate who will best serve Israel’s interests,” while only 14 percent chose Harris, and 18% said there is none. significant difference between the candidates on the issue of Israel-US relations.

Iran-US relations are another key foreign policy issue that either candidate will have to take on if elected. Both Harris and Trump have expressed harsh views on Iran, with Harris calling it the US’s “greatest adversary” in an Oct. 7 CBS interview and Trump encouraging Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities in retaliation for the missile attack. Iran’s October 1 missile attacks on Iran. Israel.

However, both candidates have also expressed a desire to engage diplomatically with Iran. Although Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, he has since said that the United States and Iran must reach another agreement. Harris has also signaled openness to engagement with Iran, supporting the Biden administration’s diplomatic efforts.

While the two candidates differ on certain aspects of their Iran policy, their overall positions are not different – a fact that Iranians have noted. Many Iranians expressed similar skepticism about the candidates, believing that neither would bring about change between the two countries.

A Stasis survey of Iranian public opinion on foreign policy conducted between September 21 and October 3 found that 61 percent of Iranians support the idea of ​​engaging with “the West” to establish a nuclear deal, while 20 percent believe that Iran should not conclude. a business. Additionally, an even larger majority, 67%, supported normalizing relations with the United States, while 25% opposed.

However, there is a branch of conservatism in Iranian society and politics that rejects any relationship with the United States. For example, before Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attended the UN General Assembly, the Iranian newspaper Kayhan published an editorial warning the president against any meetings – which they called “humiliating” – with US officials.

Iran’s leadership has not been explicit about favoring one candidate over another, but US intelligence has discovered that Iran is trying to interfere in the election through online disinformation campaigns. The New York Times, citing US and Iranian officials, reported in early September that “Iran’s efforts appear aimed at undermining the campaign of former President Donald J. Trump.”

The oil-rich Gulf states, while not being explicit about which candidate they favor, may prefer a Trump presidency, which would likely be more willing to overlook the Gulf’s dismal human rights record and involvement in Sudan and Yemen. Trump’s presidency has helped both protect and boost Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates power in the region. But probably in an effort to play it safe before the election results became clear, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states remained tight-lipped. Getting a sense of the preferences of the Gulf state’s population is even more difficult given the censorship and lack of press freedom.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also anticipating the outcome of the election, with many in Turkey saying they are waiting for the election results to make certain policy decisions. Erdogan’s political relationship with Trump during his presidency, despite some turbulence, has been strong. Erdogan’s relationship with current President Joe Biden, on the other hand, has been strained in light of Erdogan’s relationship with Russia, along with his criticism of the Biden administration over the Gaza war.

However, Erdogan’s view of Trump may not entirely align with how the Turkish people feel, especially given Erdogan’s declining favorability among the public. Interestingly, the Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah wrote in June, citing another Pew study, that 87% of Turks believe that Biden is “not doing the right thing in world affairs”, but at the same time, 86% believed that Trump would not do the right thing. , either, if chosen.

Opinions in North African countries are harder to predict, with Sudan and Libya currently embroiled in crises and Tunisia experiencing higher levels of repression under recently re-elected President Kais Saied.

Morocco’s Fez News published an analysis on Monday that said Morocco could “significantly benefit” from a Trump victory, citing Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara as well as its tough policy towards “anti-Western countries that support the Polisario Front”, the militant group seeking independence in Western Sahara. Algeria, Morocco’s main adversary in the Western Sahara conflict, rejected Trump’s position on the matter.

Egyptwhich has managed to maintain a relatively stable relationship with the United States for decades, hopes to remain the beneficiary of US support under any candidate trying to recover from an economic crisis. But it’s worth noting that Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and Trump have had warm ties during the Trump administration, and that Sisi has at times been at odds with US Democrats over their calls for greater protection of human rights in Egypt.