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    • Here’s who’s leading the 2024 Trump-Harris presidential race in Nevada
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    Here’s who’s leading the 2024 Trump-Harris presidential race in Nevada

    Online Niel Posted on

    The top line

    Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in the last three polls of likely voters in the crucial state of Nevada, where an erosion of support among Latino voters threatens to hurt Harris’ chances of winning the state next week.

    Key facts

    Harris was up three points, 49%-46%, in a New York Times/Siena poll POLL of likely voters in Nevada were released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

    Harris leads by one point, 48%-47%, in an Emerson poll released Friday (margin of error 3.6), and she is ahead 51%-47% in a study to likely voters released this week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of nationwide university-backed polls (933 respondents).

    Meanwhile, Trump is up 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS study released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).

    Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3% — essentially tied — among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult study released on October 23 (margin of error 5 points), she trails Trump 47%-46% in a AARP survey to likely voters released October 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal The Oct. 11 poll (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually wide five-point lead.

    Trump has an average lead of 0.7 points in Nevada, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighting poll average.

    Nevada — which is the smallest swing state with just six electoral votes — has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

    Big number

    56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49 percent who do so in 2024, according to a September report. NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

    Key background

    Support for Harris among Latino voters will be critical to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanics and Latinos make up about 30% of the population and polls show that she has lost support among key demographics. Biden leads Nevada Latino voters over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit pollswhile Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University POLL of Latin American voters. Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the poll, which found 53 percent of Latino voters ages 18 to 34 in Nevada support Trump and 40 percent support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of concerns among Latino voters in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll that found 37 percent said inflation was their top concern and 17 percent said immigration.

    Tangent

    The Harris campaign made a last-ditch appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running. against Trump ally Kari Lake for Arizona Senate. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

    Further reading

    Trump-Harris Wisconsin 2024 Polls: The latest polls show Trump with a slight lead (Forbes)

    Election 2024 Statewide Polls: Trump Holds Lead in Arizona, Harris Holds Narrow Edge in Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

    Trump vs. Harris 2024 polls: Harris and Trump virtually tied in latest polls as race tightens (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Pennsylvania 2024 Polls: Harris leads crucial state in latest poll (Forbes)

    Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Georgia 2024 polls: Harris holds surprise 1-point lead in new poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris North Carolina 2024 Polls: Trump Surpasses Harris’ Lead (Forbes)

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