CHARLESTON, SC (WCSC) – The National Weather Service is monitoring a system it has now named Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, which is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael Sunday evening.

At 5 p.m. Sunday, the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.0 north, longitude 77.1 west, about 345 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica.

The system is moving northeast near 7 mph. A turn to the north and then northwest is expected over the next few days.

Forecast-wise, the system is expected to move near Jamaica by late Monday and near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. This system is expected to become a tropical depression Sunday evening and steady strengthening is forecast.

The minimum central pressure estimated based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hurricane is 1004 mb or 29.65 inches.

Tropical Storm Patty is spinning in the North Atlantic

As of 3 p.m. Sunday, the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 24.3 West, about 175 miles east-southeast of Lajes Air Base in the Azores.

The storm is moving east near 16 mph and an east to east-northeast movement is expected over the next couple of days.

On the forecast track, Patty’s center is expected to move away from the Azores.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. A weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Patty could become a post-tropical low later Sunday or Sunday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward to within 80 miles of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb or 29.30 inches.

It is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, with local amounts of 4 inches, in the Azores through Sunday.

Patty could degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday, with a gradual weakening by early next week.

Another area monitored in the Caribbean

Meanwhile, forecasters are tracking a third low pressure area east of the southeastern Bahamas. It produces a large area of ​​showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwest Atlantic.

Slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves west toward the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into an area of ​​low pressure over the Caribbean Sea by Monday evening, ending its chances of development.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is possible over the next few days from the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.

There is only a 10% chance of development for that second system in the next week.

After Rafael, the remaining names on the list for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Sara, Tony, Valerie and William.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30.

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