Following an observation from hurricane hunters Sunday afternoon, the area of ​​the Caribbean we watched for tropical development has been labeled Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen as further development is expected over the next few days.

This system is expected to become Tropical Storm Raphael early this week. The National Hurricane Center has released its official cone forecast.

The environment in which this system begins features warmer waters and low shear, making it more conductive to further development as it moves further into the Caribbean. On its way to the Gulf, it is forecast to become a hurricane. But from there, things change.

As this system makes its way into the Gulf, it will weaken. Gulf waters are much colder than the Caribbean, the Gulf will be a much higher shear environment and will experience drier air. With these things combined, it really has no chance of being a powerful system.

With so many factors coming into play mid-week when it hits the Gulf, the NHC noted that this forecast is very preliminary and will change as the forecast develops.

We can see in the current spaghetti pattern the spread of runway uncertainty upon arrival in the Gulf, as this is still quite a long forecast at this point. There will be plenty of other environmental factors to consider through the middle and end of the week.

One thing that is highly confident at this point is that this storm will weaken considerably once it reaches the Gulf, regardless of where it may end up due to the hostile environment it will encounter.

The bottom line is that it is still far too early to identify specifics and much uncertainty remains. As the forecast develops, we’ll know more and provide updates. For now, this is not an immediate threat. Expect isolated rain chances and rough surf next week.