BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) – We may have Rafael in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico before the middle of next week.

A tropical low in the southern Caribbean south of Jamaica organized over the weekend and will likely become a tropical depression over the next 24 hours.

The model data mostly agreed that this system would NOT affect the state of Texas. Right now it looks like it will continue northwest and then curve east somewhere near the Mid Gulf Coast by mid/late next week.

The biggest reason (and this goes for October as well) is the jetstream. Most of the time, upper level winds tend to steer any tropical system away from Texas. The model data tends to agree with this solution, so we will continue to be careful, but we have no current worries.

Hurricane season technically lasts until the end of November.

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