HARRIS’ LEAD FOR TRUMP NARROWS IN NH; LIKELY VOTERS split on the expected winner nationally

DURHAM, NH – Vice President Kamala Harris continues to hold a lead over former President Donald Trump in New Hampshire as the campaign draws to a close, but her lead has narrowed since September. Voters are evenly split when asked which candidate they expect to become president, a shift from September, when a plurality expected Harris to win. Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, are more popular among likely New Hampshire voters than Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance. There is widespread anxiety in the state about political violence, as more than four in five likely voters express concern about violent election interference, attacks on political figures and political leaders trying to seize power.

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AYOTTE HOLDS SMALL LEAD OVER CRAIG IN NH GOVERNOR RACE; PAPPAS & GOODLANDER RUN FOR CONGRESS

DURHAM, NH – Republican Kelly Ayotte holds a slight lead over Democrat Joyce Craig in the New Hampshire governor’s race. Ayotte has solid support within his party and holds a twenty percentage point lead among independents. In New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District, Democrat Maggie Goodlander leads Republican Lily Tang Williams in the race to succeed incumbent Rep. Ann Kuster, while incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas leads Republican Russell Prescott in his bid for a fourth term. Voters likely have modest familiarity with a proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot that would raise the state’s required judicial retirement age, and more than a third remain unsure how they will vote.

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These findings are based on the latest Granite State election poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Research Center. A total of 2,887 individuals completed the survey between October 29 and November 2, 2024. Two thousand one hundred and six (2,106) Granite State Panel members completed the online survey. Additionally, 781 New Hampshire residents completed the survey after receiving a text message invitation to complete the online survey. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 1.8 percent. The sample included 2,814 likely general election voters (margin of sampling error +/- 1.9 percent), of whom 1,433 live in NH’s 1st Congressional District (MOE +/- 2.6 percent), and 1,359 live in NH’s 2nd congressional district (MOE+). /- 2.7 percent).