That Choice The day is approaching, tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots across the country.

Either through mail-in ballots or in-person early voting sites, more than 68 million Americans, about 43 percent of the 2020 voter turnout, voted against standing in line on Election Day as of Friday afternoon , according to data from University of Florida Election Lab.

Academics, reporters and pundits sifted through basic and limited data gleaned from the early voting numbers, trying to get clues about next week’s outcome.

That picture, however, is not exactly black and white, according to Charles Stewart, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Election Data Science Lab.

“It’s like talking about the weather,” he said. “The candidates, the media, etc. — are really trying to jump to conclusions just on the face value of the data, but there really isn’t much to say who wins.”

That said, Stewart said early voting data does provide some insight when it comes to voting patterns this year and overall turnout — indicators that could help explain how the election turned out.

A change in the way people vote early

Voting trends have shown more people choosing to vote before Election Day, and that number has increased over the past 30 years, but 2020 proved to be a major upset, according to Stewart.

In the last presidential election, 69 percent of the 158 million total votes were cast before Election Day either by mail, which included in-person ballots, or at early voting sites, according to MIT data.

About 43 percent of early 2020 votes came from mail-in ballots, according to the data.
Stewart said the COVID-19 pandemic has forced many voters, who were already heavily engaged and wanted to be safe, to opt to use mail-in ballots or smaller voting lines if available.

“There was speculation about what would happen to the change once the pandemic was over,” he said.

However, in this year’s early voting there was a drop in voters choosing to vote by mail, Stewart said.

“The main trend I’m seeing is that interest in voting by mail has shifted to voting in person,” Stewart said.

He noted that the change is evident in Georgia, which saw a record number of early votes, with more than 3.8 million ballots cast by Friday. About 92% of them were exposed to polling stations in person, and the rest by mail, according to Georgia Secretary of State’s Office.

Stewart said some states, including swing states Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, only offer early voting through in-person absentee options. Under this option, a voter must request an absentee ballot, complete it, and then deposit it in either a ballot box or a designated location, and the voter is counted as a voter by mail.

Some voters may not have the time or energy to go through those extra steps to cast their ballots early and will likely vote in person, Stewart said.

“If you have to vote early in person, you have to figure out where that precinct is, but you have to figure out which one is closer to your house or the polls. With postal voting, you have to make the effort to apply, to fill it out. take it out and return it and hope the mail is delivered on time,” he said. “With Election Day voting, you likely have a polling place that’s much closer to you.”

The preference for the early voting method is not the only thing that has been overturned, according to Stewart.

The partisan figures give no indication of the outcome

Stewart said historical trends show most early voters made up their minds a long time ago and are likely to be politically active.

This year’s data shows that to be the case, he said, he noted a big shift in partisan turnout in several battleground states, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.

Registered Republicans saw higher early voting turnout in battleground states Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina this election than in 2024 as of Friday, according to data.

Democrats have typically had an advantage in early voting. Still, Trump has pushed his supporters to vote early, and that appears to be having an impact, Stewart said.

While Republican officials touted those higher numbers as a sign of growing support, Stewart cautioned that the data is more nuanced.

He noted that it shows, so far, that a large number of registered Republicans who cast their ballots early are from people who voted on Election Day in 2020 and were not new voters.

Stewart said that would mean there would be fewer Republican voters casting their ballots on Election Day, and so their votes might not be reported until much later on Election Night or even the following days.

In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic balances increase throughout election night and during the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the outcome.

That mirage and “blue wave” could be disabled this time, Stewart said.

“Whatever the shift to blue is, it’s probably going to be a less steep slope,” he said.

What gender, race say about early voting

Democrats touted the gender gap as a factor in their favor in early voting numbers, as more than 54 percent of women had cast their ballots by Friday, according to data from the University of Florida.

Stewart said that assumption is not noteworthy.

Women have always been the majority of the electorate in presidential elections since 1980, according to tCenter for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

Stewart said that’s also true for early voters.

“It’s not always obvious to the public that there’s always been a gender gap,” he said.

When it comes to race, white voters are more likely to vote by mail than black voters, according to MIT data.

Stewart said this stems from traditions that go back to the civil rights movement.

“African-Americans fought and sometimes died to be able to march to the voting booth. That was instilled in the community,” he said.

That practice is a factor in large numbers of black voters heading to in-person early voting sites in states like Georgia and South Carolina where that option is available.

Churches, civil rights groups and other organizations with ties to the black community pushed voters to head to early polls, using campaigns like “souls to the polls” to avoid any complications on Election Day.

In particular, groups in Georgia emphasized early voting to avoid some of them restrictive voting laws which have been implemented since the 2020 elections.

By Friday night, more than 1 million black voters had cast their ballots, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.

“The mobilization efforts have clearly proven effective,” Stewart said.

Signs point to a high turnout

Stewart said the only definite conclusion to be drawn from the early voting data is that overall turnout this year will be “on par” with 2020, which was the highest percentage turnout in more than 100 year old.

“It could be the highest 160 (million),” he estimated.

Stewart said early voting trends showed voters under the age of 25 have yet to vote and will typically line up on Election Day.

“These populations are really heavily represented on Election Day,” he said.

Stewart reiterated that with the pandemic over, a good number of early 2020 voters will likely switch back to voting on Election Day, especially if it presents itself as the easier option for their locations and schedule.

Looking ahead, Steward predicted that the increase in Republican early voting will continue in future cycles, along with the general trend of the electorate opting for early voting.

“The data shows this organic growth in early voting even after the pandemic,” he said. “Voters want more options and will seriously consider voting if they have more options.”