Unemployment statistics for Yakima County and Washington as a whole saw a dramatic shift between 2023 and this year, from record low unemployment to more people out of work.

But overall labor market trends for the US, state and region remain the same, as the shift from retiring Baby Boomers to Gen Z and Millennial workers is taking place across numerous industries.

Both situations — along with the benefits of hiring older workers, apprenticeships and even those with prior addiction problems and criminal records — were discussed Tuesday at Yakima Workforce Conference at the Yakima Convention and Events Center.

Joshua LaFon, vice president of client services at labor market analytics company Lightcast, told more than 120 attendees at Tuesday’s event about the future labor shortages facing the U.S. and other countries.

LaFon shared statistics from the Moscow, Idaho-based organization that show several national trends that existed before the pandemic: the rapid retirement of Baby Boomer workers, declining U.S. labor force participation as Boomers retired and millennials entered the labor market; and the aging of the US population in general.

By 2034, adults over the age of 65 will outnumber children (under) 18 for the first time in US history, the US Census Bureau predicts.

In addition to this demographic trend, the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, causing the US labor force participation to plummet.

“The labor force participation rate took a serious hit in 2020 and hasn’t recovered since,” LaFon said. “The pandemic pushed the gas pedal down on trends that were already coming. People have been leaving the workforce faster than we thought.”

Yakima’s labor force participation rate has also declined since 2019, but remains higher than nationally and statewide, he added. Yakima County had a labor force participation rate of about 74% in 2019, and this level dropped to 66% in June 2024. However, the rates in the US (63%) and Washington (64%) were lower .

The county also had a higher population growth rate (1.3%) than Washington (1.1%) and the U.S. (0.6%) in 2022, the most recent statistics available, LaFon said.

While long-term population growth is projected to be lower, Yakima County’s rate is expected to remain above state and national levels through 2032.

Eight consecutive months of rising unemployment

Amid overall trends in labor force participation and available workers, national, state, and local economic conditions continue to fluctuate.

For much of 2023, Yakima County posted its best year-over-year unemployment rates, with a series of seven consecutive records monthly unemployment levels since April.

A year later, unemployment rates were higher and more areas of Yakima County’s economy have fewer jobs, according to statistics released this week by the state’s Department of Employment Security.

September’s 4.9 percent unemployment rate, while the lowest in the county in 2024, is more than half a percentage point above the 4.3 percent unemployment rate seen in September 2023.

It is the eighth consecutive month that unemployment rates in Yakima County have increased compared to 2023, regional economist Don Meseck reported.

He attributed the higher unemployment rates to fewer jobs in several nonfarm sectors — including the loss of manufacturing jobs that began more than a year ago.

“Year-over-year, manufacturing employment in Yakima County declined for 15 months from July 2023 through September 2024,” Meseck said.

There were 8,000 manufacturing jobs in Yakima County in September, a loss of 600 jobs or 7 percent from the 8,600 seen a year ago.

Statewide, manufacturing employment rose or was flat for nearly three years, a 34-month period from October 2021 to July of this year. But in August and September, the number of manufacturing jobs began to contract in Washington, Meseck reported.

Another area with fewer jobs in Yakima County is the construction industry, with an eight-month streak of job losses from the previous year, reflecting the range of rising unemployment rates.

Construction jobs were down 2.1% between September 2023 (4,800 jobs) and last month (4,700 jobs).

“Construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and utilities, and food services all added fewer jobs in September 2023 than in September 2023 — certainly not encouraging economic news,” Meseck added.

Some areas of Yakima County’s economy have seen job expansion in the past year, he reported, including retail, professional and business services, and private education and health services.

Yakima County’s September 2024 unemployment rate ranked 35th out of the state’s 39 counties, with its 4.9 percent rate tied with Pacific County in southwest Washington. It was worse than all counties except Grays Harbor (5.5%) and Wahkiakum (5.6%), also in the southwest corner of the state, and Ferry County (6.2%) in along the Canadian border. Asotin and San Juan counties, both at 2.9 percent, had the lowest unemployment.

For a complete monthly economic report for Washington State, visit esd.wa.gov/labormarketinfo/monthly-employment-report.