A nascent weather disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea looks increasingly likely to develop soon into at least a tropical depressionaccording to the National Hurricane Center.

Prospects for an area in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
(FOX Weather)

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The system, now designated Invest 97L by the NHC, it was still just a cluster of scattered showers and storms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late Saturday morning.

But gradual development is expected over the weekend and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves into the central and western Caribbean, according to the NHC. Three Hurricane Hunter flights are scheduled in 97L on Sunday and Monday.

WHAT IS AN “INVESTMENT”?

With a subtropical system in the North Atlantic earning the name Patty early Saturday morningif this Caribbean disturbance reaches tropical storm strength, the next name on the Atlantic list in 2024 is Rafael.

“There is a general consensus in computer forecast model projections that the system will be at or near tropical storm strength when it reaches the southern Gulf on Wednesday or Thursday,” says FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist. Bryan Norcross. “A dense wave of tropical moisture is forecast to rotate northward with the potential storm. This will increase the threat of flooding in the Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico beginning Monday. Some of the moisture could reach South Florida by midweek.”

But Norcross says once the system is in the Gulf, the forecast becomes unclear with weaker directional currents adding uncertainty to the forecast.

“If the system remains relatively weak, it looks more likely to move westward, perhaps toward the Mexican coast,” Norcross said. “If it’s on the stronger side, though, it could continue north toward part of the U.S. Gulf Coast.”

But the storm may still encounter hostile atmospheric conditions if it tries to approach the US, with plenty of dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and an unfavorable upper-level wind pattern.

“So even if it’s possible — Rafael is able to strengthen in the southern Gulf, a significant coastal storm seems unlikely, based on what we know right now,” Norcross said, adding if the system ever made landfall at current. schedule, that will happen next weekend.

“Obviously, we’re going to have another week of tropical tracking, although the chances of a significant storm affecting the U.S. appear to be low,” he said. “Forecasts a week ahead are always fuzzy of course, so stay tuned.”

BRYAN NORCROSS: FORECAST CONSENSUS SHOWS TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING TO GULF NEXT WEEK

Another disturbance in the northeast Caribbean Sea may combine with 97L

The NHC is also monitoring an area of ​​low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean Sea, but that system has little chance of developing over the next week.

An area to watch in the Caribbean Sea is moving north-northwest in the coming days.
(FOX Weather)

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“Some heavy tropical rain will affect the northeastern Caribbean islands over the next couple of days as the system moves west,” Norcross said. “Next week, it will likely be absorbed by developing disturbances in the Caribbean.”

The National Hurricane Center gives this system a slight chance to become a tropical depression over the next couple of days. Even if that were to happen, however, it wouldn’t change the forecast weather, Norcross said.

HOW TO GET THE FOX WEATHER

North Atlantic: Welcome Subtropical Storm Patty

In the North Atlantic, a the strong storm developed into Subtropical Storm Pattythe National Hurricane Center said Saturday morning.

Subtropical Storm Patty.
(FOX Weather)

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Patty had sustained winds of 65 mph and was located about 300 miles west/northwest of the Azores, the NHC said.

The storm, previously designated Invest 96L, is expected to maintain its current strength on Saturday and then gradually weaken on Sunday, possibly becoming a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday, according to the NHC.

The remnants of the storm could eventually reach Portugal and western Spain early next week.