An SEC border rivalry begins under the lights on Rocky Top when No. 7 Tennessee welcomes Kentucky in Week 10 college football action Saturday night. Here’s what to watch for in the match with our updated match prediction.

Tennessee is coming off its bye week fresh off a signature win over Alabama that, thanks to its dominant defense, puts the team squarely in the College Football Playoff contention as we head into November football.

Kentucky fell to 1-5 in SEC play and is on a three-game losing streak behind one of the nation’s least productive offensive efforts.

What can we expect when the Volunteers and Wildcats meet in this SEC rivalry clash?

Here’s what to watch for when Tennessee and Kentucky square off in this Week 10 college football matchup with our updated matchup prediction.

1. On the ground. Dylan Sampson leads Tennessee’s offense and is the engine behind a rushing attack that ranks 7th nationally with 241.6 yards per game, while he personally ranks 13th in the FBS with 838 yards, eclipsing 100 yards in all but one this year. Kentucky ranks 52nd against the rush nationally and has allowed 11 touchdowns in 2024.

2. Slow starts. Tennessee hasn’t scored a point in the first half of its last three straight games, the only team nationally to do so, thanks to a combination of sluggish offensive pace, mistakes, some missed plays and inconsistent production.

Kentucky is 17th nationally allowing just 8.6 points in the first half this season, but that average has increased to 17 points in its last 3 outings, 12th worst in the Power Four.

3. Power vs. Weakness. Tennessee’s defense is a behemoth right now, ranking 3rd in the FBS in total production, allowing just 4.03 yards per game, 2.24 yards per carry, allowing 11.6 points per game and just 4 touchdowns overall pass, all top five points at national level, among others. .

Kentucky is officially the worst offense in the SEC right now, ranking last or near the bottom in most key categories, averaging just under 2 touchdowns per game and has yet to score more more than 20 points in a conference game this season.

Tennessee was 21.7 points better than its opponents overall this season compared to Kentucky’s average 0.8 points worse than the 2024 opposition.

In the last three games, both environments have diverged seriously.

Tennessee regressed to being 2.7 points better than the competition, while Kentucky dropped to be 16.3 points worse than the opponents of that time.

There is also a marked difference given the place: Tennessee is 28 points better than opponents playing at home on average, and Kentucky is 12.5 points worse when on the road.

Tennessee has an average 34.7 points per game this season, ranking 20th nationally in that category compared to a Kentucky defense that surrenders 19.1 points per game.

The Big Orange ranks 25th in the FBS with 432.8 yards per game in total offensive production and is going against a Wildcat defense that ranks 15th in surrenders 310.4 yards per game on average.

On a base, average Volunteers .475 points per game for a ranking no. 27 nationally, while the UK allows .353 points per game this season, ranking 60th.

Tennessee has an average 5.9 yards per game in offense in 2024, ranking 42nd in the FBS while Kentucky allows 5.5 meters per game in defense, ranking 67th.

On third down this season, Tennessee ranks 34th nationally, converting 48 of 108 opportunities for a 44.44% success rate..

Kentucky allowed teams to move the chains 37 times out of 89 chances for 41.57 percent success on third down defense.

Tennessee is efficient in the red zone, coming up with points per 30 out of 34 chances for a 88.24% success rate.and 22 of those 30 scores (64.71%) are touchdowns.

Kentucky allowed 21 scores on 28 chances in the red zone in order to 75% success rate. on defense, and 14 of those scores were touchdowns (58.3%).

Kentucky has an average 19.1 points per game this season, ranking 111th out of 134 FBS teams compared to a Vols defense that ranks 5th in allowing 13 points per game.

UK averages are slightly below 308 yards per game in total offense, ranking 114th nationally, while Tennessee ranked 3rd in surrender 264.3 yards per game in defense.

Kentucky Environments .294 points per game this season, good for 107th in the country, compared to the Volunteers, who rank 4th in the FBS allowing .193 points per game.

The Wildcats are ranked 113th nationally with 4.7 yards per play average, while the Vols are 2nd in the FBS with 3.9 yards per play allowed in defense.

Kentucky ranks 82nd nationally in third down production, moving the chains further 38 out of 98 chances in order to 38.78% success rate..

Tennessee is No. 1 in the FBS in allowing 23 of 97 conversions on third down for 23.71 percent success against opponents.

Working from scoring position, Kentucky turned it around 18 out of 22 chances in points this season and 12 of those scores (54.55%) are touchdowns.

The Vols are 5th nationally in surrenders 15 out of 23 chances in points defensively, but only 8 of those scores were converted into touchdowns (34.78%).

As expected, most computer projections side with the Vols over the Wildcats.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is expected to win the game in a landslide 90.9 percent of the latest computer simulations of the match.

That leaves Kentucky as the presumptive winner the rest of the way 9.1 percent of sense.

The model predicts that Tennessee will emerge 20.6 points better than Kentucky on the same field, according to the latest projections.

Tennessee is a favorite with 16.5 points against Kentucky, according to updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And he set the money line rates for Tennessee at -880 and for Kentucky at +580 to win outright.

There are some lingering questions about the relative inconsistency of Tennessee’s vertical game, as quarterback Nico Iamaleava has yet to live up to that potential, but in the meantime this offense gets enough from a strong ground attack to make up for the difference.

This week, that should be enough as the Vols take on a Kentucky front seven that has deteriorated significantly since helping it upset Ole Miss on the road earlier this year.

Kentucky can’t move the ball much. It is 119th out of 134 FBS teams in total production, averaging under 5 yards per game and is 121st in scoring.

College Headquarters Football Select…

More… Score Prediction Tennessee vs. Kentucky by the expert model

When: Saturday, November 2
Time: 7:45 PM Eastern
TV: SEC Network

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Game odds are periodically updated and subject to change.

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