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Here’s who’s leading in key 2024 election battlegrounds
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Here’s who’s leading in key 2024 election battlegrounds

The top line

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively tied, with Harris leading voters in all seven states by just one point and maintaining slight leads in the Upper Midwest and Nevada, while Trump narrowly leads in the South east and Arizona, but essentially Pennsylvania must win is a tossup.

Key facts

Harris has a 49%-48% lead among voters in all seven battleground states, according to a the new HarrisX/Forbes survey except Thursday, a statistical tie, but 14 percent of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning there’s plenty of room for the race to change.

North Caroline: Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday (margin of error 4.5 points), an outlier among several other polls this week showing Trump ahead, including a Fox News poll showing him 49%-47% (or 50%-49% without third parties), while he leads 50%-48% in polls released over the past week by Cooperative electoral study, Marist and Emerson College. FiveThirtyEight’s average it shows Trump with a 1.2 point lead.

Georgia: Trump holds a 48%-47% lead Thursday CNN/SSRS poll (margin of error 4.7), and he was up 51%-46% in the CES poll (2,663 respondents) and 49.9%-48.4% in last week’s poll. Bloomberg surveyalthough they are tied at 49% in a Marist POLL (margin of error 3.9) and a Washington Post-Schar POLL (margin of error 4.5) found Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Pennsylvania: Couldn’t come close – candidates are tied at 48% in Fox News and CNN/SSRS Polls published on Wednesday, and it is 49%-49% in one CBS/YouGov polland while Trump is up 47%-46% in a Quinnipiac poll and 50%-49% if Fox News eliminates third parties, Harris holds a 49%-48% lead in a large Electoral study in cooperation survey (3,685 respondents). Monmouth finder Trump is up 47%-46% among all registered voters, but Harris leads 48%-47% among people who vote in most elections. Overall, Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Michigan: Trump has a rare lead in one Washington Post poll released Thursday showing him 47%-45%, though three other polls this week show Harris with a lead, including Fox News poll that found it up 48%-46% (although there is a tie at 49% without third parties), 51%-46% in the CES poll (2,336 respondents) and 48%-43% in CNN/SSRS poll— while Trump leads 49%-48% in one The Emerson Survey released Tuesday (margin of error 3 points). Harris is up 1.1 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Wisconsin: Harris leads Trump 50%-47% in CES poll (1,542 respondents), 51%-45% in CNN/SSRS poll and 50%-49% in a The Marquette Pollwhile Trump is up 49% to 48% in an Emerson study and the two candidates are tied at 48 percent in a Quinnipiac POLL. Harris rose 0.7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Nevada: Harris leads Trump 51%-47% in CES study (933 respondents), while Trump is ahead 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS study released on Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points), and Harris is up 48.8%-48.3% in a Bloomberg survey issued on October 23 (margin of error 5). Harris rose 0.1 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Arizona: Trump up 51%-47% in CES poll (2,066 respondents), and he leads 50%-49% in Marist survey POLL released Oct. 24 (margin of error 3.7) and 49%-46% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll this week (margin of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.2 points in FiveThirtyEight poll average.

Big number

1.4 points. That’s Harris’ lead in national polls conducted by FiveThirtyEight average.

Key background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 amid an uproar within the party over his performance in the debates — dramatically changing the Democrats’ fortunes. Before the change, polls consistently found Trump beating Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of seven (except North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris Polls 2024: Harris Maintains Lead in 4 New Polls (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Michigan 2024 polls: Harris narrowly leads in one of her swing states (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Pennsylvania 2024 Polls: Harris leads by less than 1 point in polling averages (Forbes)

Trump-Harris North Carolina 2024 Polls: Near Tie in New Seventh Swing State (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Georgia polls in 2024: Most polls show Trump ahead in key state (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Nevada 2024 polls: Harris has narrow lead but struggles with Latino voters (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Wisconsin 2024 Polls: The latest polls show Trump with a slight lead (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Arizona 2024 Polls: Trump Holds Lead in Latest Swing State Poll (Forbes)