While the Houston Cougars are fresh off two wins in their last three Big 12 games, Willie Fritz’s schedule has yet to play a team as loaded as the Kansas State Wildcats.

With the Wildcats playing their best football of the season, my Kansas State vs Houston predictions expect their punishing offense to take advantage of the Cougars defense.

Read all about it in me college football picks for Saturday, November 2.

Kansas State vs Houston prediction and best bet

My best bet
Kansas State -13.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Houston has picked up wins against Utah and TCU in its last three games, proof that Fritz has this team headed in the right direction. But there’s also a clear talent gap when the Cougars play more competent Big 12 programs.

While the two wins were nice, they were outscored 96-14 in their other three conference games against Kansas, Iowa State and Cincinnati. In two of those games, they were shut out, failing to cover all three.

ok Kansas State is on a similar level with the Cyclones as one of the top teams in the Big 12. The Wildcats are the top-ranked team in the conference in SP+ (15th), and that’s largely due to their offense.

Kansas State is eighth in the nation in EPA per rush this season and ninth in rushing yards per game (223.3). The combination of QB Avery Johnson and running backs DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards is lethal and should pose a massive problem for defensive coordinator Shiel Wood.

Houston is just 77th in EPA per rush defense and is allowing an average of 203 rushing yards per game in Big 12 losses. And this running game is more explosive than that of the Jayhawks, Cyclones and Bearcats, with 63 runs of 10+ yards this season, per PFF.

All Kansas State needs to do to cover is find the end zone a few times because this Houston offense is atrocious. He ranks 102nd in SP+ and averages the fewest yards per game (300.4) and points per game (14.1) in the Big 12.

The Cougars have one of the worst offenses in the country and rank just 98th in EPA per dropback and 107th in EPA per rush. That won’t cut it against a Top 25 Wildcats defense in either category.

K-State allows the fewest rushing yards per game in the conference (96.8) and just 21.4 points per game. This is not a game Chris Kileman’s team will be caught playing with their food.

I expect the Wildcats to win in the span 35-17.

Same Game Parlay Kansas State vs Houston (SGP)

Kansas State -12.5

Over 45.5

DJ Giddens Over 104.5 yards rushing

The total for this game is low because Houston’s offense has been so sporadic and the team is only 1-7 on the Over. However, Kansas State’s offense is the best the Cougars have seen and should be able to do most of the scoring for this Over to hit.

Against Kansas, the total was set at 45 before the Jayhawks beat Houston 42-14. I think this will be a similar result with the Wildcats offense being as explosive as Johnson at QB.

Kansas State has hit the Over in three of its last four while averaging 36.7 points per game in that span, its lowest total of the season.

A big part of Kansas State’s high-powered offense was Giddens. Over the last four games, he is averaging 132 rushing yards per game. He is sixth in the nation in rushing yards after contact (657) and 10th in forced missed tackles (47), which should lead to plenty of block runs against this defense.

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Kansas State vs Houston odds

Kansas State vs Houston live odds

Kansas State vs Houston Opening Odds

• Kansas State vs Houston spread: Houston +12.5
• Kansas State vs. Money Line Houston: Kansas State -550, Houston +400
• Kansas State vs Houston over/under: 45.5

Odds courtesy of him BetMGM

Kansas State vs Houston spread and over/under analysis

• Kansas State opened as a 12.5-point favorite, with the line moving to the Wildcats -13.5 at most sportsbooks.
• The Wildcats are just 3-5 ATS this season, while Houston is 4-4.
• The Over/Under opened between 45.5 and 46.5 with most cards seeing little movement.
• Kansas State is 4-4 on the Over this season but 3-1 in the last four, but Houston is just 1-7.

Kansas State vs Houston betting trend to know

Kansas State has hit over-the-top totals in eight of its last 13 games (+2.50 units / 17% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Kansas State vs. Houston.

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