WASHINGTON — Hacking a local election system in the United States would not be easy, and secretly altering votes on a scale massive enough to change the outcome of the presidential race would be impossible, election officials said, thanks to decentralized, paper-recording systems. for almost all ballots, exhaustive reviews, due process of law and decades of work by election officials, volunteers and American citizens.

But foreign actors and domestic extremist groups seeking to interfere in next week’s election may be targeting a much weaker link: voters’ perceptions and emotions. Those intent on undermining confidence in American democracy need not change a single vote if they can convince enough Americans to distrust the outcome.

It’s one possible scenario, especially for analysts and intelligence officials tasked with protecting America’s elections: An adversary tries to hack a state or local election system and then releases a document — perhaps a fake one or even material that’s publicly available — and suggests that it is evidence. of vote fraud.

Or, a video is created showing someone allegedly hacking a ballot scanner, voting machine or state voter registration system. But it didn’t happen and it wouldn’t be true.

It’s called a perception hack, which may or may not include an actual breach of voting systems, but is made to appear as though it happened. In some cases, minor information can be stolen – enough to make a video look legitimate – but it doesn’t change the votes. A related threat involves fake images purported to show election workers destroying ballots.

In both cases, the goal is the same: to generate confusion, mistrust and fear.

Governments at all levels have worked to strengthen electoral infrastructure in recent years. However, the human brain remains difficult to defend.

“I think it will almost certainly happen,” former CIA political analyst Adam Darrah said when discussing the risk of perception hacks.

Darrah, now vice president of information at cybersecurity company ZeroFox, said it’s much easier to mislead people into thinking election systems are vulnerable than to hack them. “It’s a way to induce panic. We are very resilient from a technical point of view. Our emotional resilience, our hypersensitivity, that’s still a challenge.”

Narrow margins of victory or delays in counting votes could increase the risk of a perception hack fooling large numbers of voters, further polarizing the electorate, increasing the risk of political violence and potentially complicating the transfer of power in January.

Intelligence officials warned last week that Russia and Iran could consider encouraging violent protests in the US after the election. The nation’s intelligence community and private analysts agree that while the Kremlin supports former President Donald Trump, Moscow’s ultimate goal is to divide Americans and undermine US support for Ukraine and the NATO alliance.

America’s adversaries focus on disinformation in part, officials say, because they understand that the country’s election infrastructure is too secure to successfully hack.

Despite the findings of intelligence officials, both Russia and Iran have rejected claims that they are trying to influence the US election.

“We have never intervened, we do not interfere and we do not intend to intervene,” a spokesman for the Russian Embassy in Washington wrote in an email to The Associated Press.

Even without the involvement of a foreign power, isolated stories of long lines at the polls, ballot mix-ups or other irregularities could be held up as evidence that elections cannot be trusted.

It happened in 2020 when Trump escalated claims of election problems, contributing to the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol by his supporters who were trying to disrupt the certification of the election.

The former Republican president has spent months laying the groundwork to challenge the results of this year’s election if he loses. And he worked to convince his supporters that the only way he can lose is if Democrats cheat, urging them to pull off a “too big to handle” victory.

“They’re cheating,” Trump said at a rally in Michigan last month. “That’s the only way we’ll lose, because they’re cheating. They cheat like hell.”

As in 2020, the days immediately following the election will likely be the most critical as the results are announced and Americans come to the bottom of a contentious race.

Then authoritarian nations or anti-democratic domestic groups will seek to create mistrust in an effort to spur people to action, said Paul Barrett, a law professor at New York University who studies online discourse and polarization.

“They’re happy to see Americans at the throats of other Americans,” Barrett said. “We saw this in 2021 and I have great anxiety that we will see a repeat.”

In response, national security and election officials across the country have taken steps to expose the disinformation and quickly shoot down the rumors. Senior intelligence officials held several briefings highlighting foreign threats, while cybersecurity and election officials explained why election systems are secure.

Last week, a video purporting to show someone destroying mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania began circulating on social media. Bipartisan election officials in Bucks County quickly debunked the video, and intelligence officials linked it to a Russian campaign behind other videos that sought to smear Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Waltz.

“This video was debunked pretty quickly on multiple news sites, and I know that Bucks County immediately came out in front of it and basically explained why it was a fake and why voters should trust it,” he said Kim Wyman, a former secretary of state in Washington State who also worked at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency.

“But the problem is, it’s out there now,” she said. “We know it will continue to air until now and probably on Inauguration Day.”

Americans can help prevent a successful perception hack without further spreading election hoaxes. Disinformation experts urge voters to check a variety of information sources, be skeptical of anonymous claims on social media, and reach out to their state and local officials to get the facts.

Uncertainty and emotions will rise in the days after the vote – exactly the conditions foreign adversaries and domestic extremists need to undermine confidence.

“Our foreign adversaries seek to attack our democratic process to advance their own goals, and we need the help of all Americans to ensure they are unsuccessful,” said CISA Advisor Cait Conley. “Americans should be confident that their votes will be counted as cast. They should also know that our foreign adversaries will try to make them believe otherwise.”

“We encourage everyone to remain vigilant, verify the information they consume and rely on trusted sources such as state and local election officials,” she added.