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Here’s who’s leading in Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election polls
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Here’s who’s leading in Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election polls

The top line

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, according to three new polls released in recent days, but polling averages show Trump has narrowed Harris’ lead in the crucial swing state, making it a virtual tie more less than a week before election day.

Key facts

Harris is up 50% to 49% among likely voters from a Marquette Law School POLL released Wednesday (margin of error 4.4 points) that includes undecided voters who lean toward one of the candidates — showing Trump significantly narrowed Harris’ six-point lead in the school. previous survey released on October 2.

Harris has a larger lead of 51%-45% in one CNN/SSRS pollalso on Wednesday (margin of error 4.8 points).

Harris holds a 50%-47% lead over Trump in a Co-op poll study released this week as part of a national survey of universities by YouGov (1,542 respondents).

Trump has a narrow one-point lead at Emerson College POLL likely voters were released Thursday (margin of error 3.4), while the candidates are tied in two other polls released last week: a Quinnipiac POLL which found both with 48% support and a Bloomberg/Morning Consult POLL that shows Trump up 48.3%-48%.

Harris rose three points, from 50 percent to 47 percent, at a Washington Post-Schar school POLL to likely voters released last week (margin of error 4.6) and a Wall Street Journal in early October POLL showed them tied at 48% of registered voters.

Most polls in Wisconsin — whose 10 electoral votes could prove crucial — reflect a slim race, with Harris leading by just 0.3 points in FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.

Voter turnout in Wisconsin could be high in November as there are several competitive U.S. House races in the state and Republicans are in a tight race to maintain majority control of the state Assembly, Anthony Chergosky, assistant professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse said WUWM Public Radio in Milwaukee.

Declining support for Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in the Wisconsin Senate race is also seen as a warning sign for Democrats, according to the Cook Political Report moved the state from weak Democrat to upset last week after finding his lead over Republican Eric Hovde has dropped from seven points to two since August, though a Marquette Law School poll also released last week still found it with a seven point lead.

Biden won Wisconsin by less than a point in 2020, flipping the state after Trump beat Hillary Clinton there in 2016; former President Barack Obama won the state by decisive margins in both 2008 and 2012.

Tangent

Republicans control both the Wisconsin State Assembly and Senate, and the governor’s office is held by Democrat Tony Evers.

Key background

The race between Harris and Trump is a virtual tie, according to polls showing Trump closing the gap in the polls after Harris led him in most polls in the weeks after he replaced Biden at the top of the ticket in July. Wisconsin is among seven swing states that could determine the winner of the 2024 election, along with Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. Winning the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is widely considered Harris’ clearest path to 270 electoral votes, assuming she takes all the other states Biden won in 2020.

Further reading

Election 2024 Statewide Polls: Trump Holds Lead in Arizona, Harris Holds Narrow Edge in Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris 2024 polls: Harris and Trump virtually tied in latest polls as race tightens (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Pennsylvania 2024 Polls: Harris leads crucial state in latest poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads in latest poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Georgia 2024 polls: Harris holds surprise 1-point lead in new poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris North Carolina 2024 Polls: Trump Surpasses Harris’ Lead (Forbes)