Statewide, this is the most extensive drought since 2022. However, by October of that year, drought conditions were beginning to improve. This year, drought conditions have progressively worsened over time, right from August. The combination of dry conditions, freshly fallen leaves and high winds resulted in dangerous wildfire conditions.

Dave Celino, chief wildfire warden for the Mass. Department of Conservation and Recreation, said “we have all three legs of the wildfire triangle — weather, fuel and topography.” According to Celino, rapid changes in temperature make conditions worse for firefighters.

Since October 1, there have been 185 wildfires in Massachusetts that have consumed at least 600 acres in total, including the Cain Hill fire in Salem, which has spread to about 135 acres, and the Middleton Pond fire (166 acres).

The National Weather Service team has been working daily with state officials in Mass., Connecticut and Rhode Island to determine whether weather conditions warrant issuing a red flag warning — like the one issued last Sunday for southern New England. Red flag warnings are issued when fire danger is high due to warm temperatures, low humidity and high winds. It is important to understand that even without warnings, conditions are conducive to fires.

“If the ground is dry, low relative humidity is less important in fire behavior, the damage is already done,” Loconto said.

Bringing a breeze into the equation will dramatically expand the fire risk. Silence from backyard fires or a spark from a cigarette could cause a brush fire to get out of control in one case.

Additional manpower was brought in to fight the fires. In addition to local fire departments, DCR, Department of Fire Services (DFS) and Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) crews assisted in extinguishing the wildfires. Celino said the Massachusetts National Guard provided the latest air support with the large wildfires near Salem and Middleton.

On Sunday, their Black Hawk helicopters dropped more than 25,000 gallons of water on the Salem fire, which helped firefighters contain the blaze.

Prior to these recent showers, the Boston area had gone over two weeks (since October 14th) without any measurable rain. Andrew Loconto, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Norton, said “local river flows are running at only 5-15 percent of normal,” another indication that drought conditions are worsening.

Parts of New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine saw the “heaviest rain” — only about half an inch — overnight.

Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, said most of the country is experiencing dry conditions, except for areas in the path of Hurricanes Helene and Milton. As our climate changes, we get into persistent patterns—multiple days of the same weather pattern. For example, a consistently warmer atmosphere reduces variation in our weather patterns, including storm tracks.

“The frequency of persistent patterns increases over time, especially when the Arctic is warm,” said Francis, whose research looks at patterns where the jet stream stays in place for four or more days.

Wet patterns of can also enter these persistent periods. The transition between a dry and wet weather pattern is what Francis calls “weather whip.” Francis said: “Climate models show a much stronger increase in whiplash patterns.” The consequences of this could mean that areas experiencing drought conditions could quickly experience flooding.

As the planet warms, the growing season is also getting longer. David Boutt, a professor of hydrogeology at the University of Massachusetts, said a longer growing season comes with new challenges. “As we lengthen the growing season due to climate change, this alters the water budget, making us more susceptible to rapid-onset dry spells,” Boutt said.

Essentially, a longer growing season means plants require more water. If the region remains dry throughout the longer growing season, drought becomes more likely. To compound the problem, higher temperatures also increase evaporation rates from soil, rivers and reservoirs, depleting water supplies faster and leaving less available for agriculture, ecosystems and human use.

Adam Allgood, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center who specializes in monitoring and forecasting climate conditions on timescales ranging from weeks to seasons, said the outlook for erasing this drought in New England is dim.

“There will be opportunities for precipitation over the next two weeks, but not enough to get us out of the hole,” Allgood said. Our window to receive significant relief is short. He said: “November tends to be a good recharge time for groundwater before the ground freezes into the winter months.” Unfortunately, at this point, November looks like it’s going to start on the dry side.

November is typically the second wettest month of the year for Boston and many places in New England, with an average of 3.80 inches below March’s average of 3.90 inches.