Sinn Féin’s downward trajectory in the south continues. Latest polls puts the party at 16-17%, a far cry from the dizzying 36% of summer 2023. The juggernaut of 2020-23 has hit the sand.

In the north we don’t know the impact of the last few weeks because there were no further surveys.

A remedy is not so urgent in the north because there are no elections until 2027, but in the south an election is looming by the end of next month with the money on November 29.

There are two views from the current loss of credibility north and south and from the party’s shambolic responses to the crisis.

First of all, a drop of one or two percent in the polls after the huge crowd of political opponents and media in the north and south is not too bad. It’s an indication that, at least in the South, the general public is not as obsessed as politicians and journalists with who knew what, when or how long they covered it. For the general public, housing and immigration remain dominant.

Also, as the election campaign kicks into high gear, the race will tighten. Already Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are neck and neck: 20-22%. They are already starting to bump into each other, and relationships will break down more in the coming weeks. It is obvious that the Greens, now on 3%, will be massacred.

In the new Dáil with 174 seats from those figures, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael together will not be able to form a government. They will come away with 37 and 38 seats respectively, a long way from the more than 87 needed for a majority. Current polls give Sinn Féin around 30 seats.

Two other factors to consider are that, firstly, a substantial number of people are not interested in party politics (as incredible as that may seem to politicians) and do not make up their minds until just before they vote.

Second, the volatile state of the Irish electorate, with support for a broad spectrum of independents fluctuating between 15% and 22%. In short, Sinn Féin may not have been as successful as hundreds of inches of column and hostile news would suggest.

The second result from the current crisis is more important and is as follows. Sinn Féin has no idea how to run a party.

Mary Lou McDonald’s initial response to the revelations was that the party needed a governance overhaul. It is not enough.

The party has for too long relied on long-term supporters, ex-IRA volunteers, relatives and loyalists. Some may have political skills – many do not – but they know absolutely nothing about management or governance.

All parties employ relatives, close friends and loyalists – too many – but a party that allows unqualified people like him to run its systems is doomed.

The result is the last few weeks. It is obvious that Sinn Féin has no systems. Ignorance and incompetence thrives because he is reluctant to give up the long-term party apparatchik, some obvious drugs.

Political opponents and enemies accuse Sinn Féin of fraud, deceit and malpractice. It’s simpler. Lacking professional governance and managerial talent in the party, political figures in Sinn Féin often have no idea what is going on.

They do interviews shaking all over the place, then someone comes along and tells them what they should have been told before they spoke. In this crisis, the resignation of their best press officer, Seán Mag Uidhir, did not help the party’s response.

In McMonagle’s case, who knew he was working for three elected officials, sometimes two at the same time, as well as being a press officer? Who was in charge? No government, no system.

The relationship between politicians and party officials is like that between racing drivers and engineers. Engineers set up the car and drivers assume it will take whatever stress they put on it. Sinn Féin has no engineers. The attitude is “Ach, sure so-and-so will do that OK,” even though “so-and-so” doesn’t have a scooby.

The short answer is that Sinn Féin needs to professionalize the party, but years of caution and suspicion make this difficult.

Bringing in professionals means letting “outsiders” know the inner workings of the party. They don’t trust “outsiders” so they can’t use real talent or get advice from objective outsiders. The result is the old GIGO computer input slogan: garbage in, garbage out.

Sinn Féin in the south has gone professional, but not in the north. This is painfully obvious. No wonder Mary Lou McDonald betrayed annoyance, not to say anger, about the mess up north.

The North is free to reform, but this option is not open to the party in the South. All McDonald can hope is that there won’t be another foot-in-mouth attack north of the border in the next two weeks.