After all, pressure from the Trump administration has led several European countries to ditch contracts with Chinese telecom giant Huawei amid cybersecurity concerns raised by the US.

Germany, in particular, has avoided confrontation with China over Huawei because of fears that Beijing could retaliate against its auto industry. The country agreed to exclude Huawei from its networks earlier this year, but delayed the day of execution longer than expected.

During the current presidency of Joe Biden, Washington’s tone towards Europe has been more conciliatory. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Europe in 2021 that the US “will not force its allies to make an ‘us or them’ choice with China”.

Under Trump, that conciliatory approach could turn 180 degrees — a boon for China hawks.

“(European Commission President Ursula) von der Leyen clearly wants a tougher approach to China but faces resistance from hesitant member states, primarily Germany,” a senior EU official said. “A little push from another Trump administration would help it rather than hurt it.”

As the November 5 election approaches, don’t expect European officials to express these views in public. Trump is deeply unpopular in most of Europe, and there are few political points to be gained by embracing him.

But officials said it may be time to embrace autonomy, suggesting Europe should prepare for a major shift in EU-US relations, regardless of who is elected.

“Europeans must take their destiny into their own hands, regardless of who is elected president of the US,” French Europe Minister Benjamin Haddad said on French television last week.