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    • Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning
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    Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning

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    The top line

    Arizona polls remain extremely tight, including a new poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris with a one-point lead over former President Donald Trump — well within the margin of error — in a state of balance where Trump has a the narrow edgeand measures on immigration and abortion will play a key role.

    Key facts

    Harris is up 48%-47% over Trump in a CNN/SSRS POLL On Tuesday, Trump leads 50%-49% in a Marist POLL of likely voters released Thursday, and Harris was up 49.1%-48.8% in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult likely voter poll published Wednesday — scoring virtual ties given the polls’ margins of error (4.4 points for CNN/SSRS, 3.7 points for Marist and three points for Bloomberg).

    Meanwhile, Trump leads Harris by 1.8 points FiveThirtyEighthis weighted polling average, raising the prospect of Trump retaking the state after Biden won it in a 2020 upset.

    Trump leads by three points, 49% to 46%, according to the Washington Post-Schar School last week POLL likely voters (margin of error 5).

    The former president also had a 51%-48% lead over Harris in a CBS/YouGov survey of likely voters, as Trump maintains a commanding lead among voters who see the economy and the border as major factors — though Harris leads with voters who see abortion and democracy as key issues.

    Among likely Latino voters in Arizona, Harris led Trump 56%-42% according to the CBS poll. something smaller than President Joe Biden’s lead in 2020 (more than 30% of Arizona residents are Hispanic or Latino).

    Trump led Harris by a slight margin of five points (51%-46%) in a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College POLL released on Oct. 12 (margin of error 4), in line with the four-point lead he held over the vice president in September.

    Trump holds an edge in Arizona over Harris on the economy, The Times reported, noting that the former president has a narrow margin on the question of who would better help the working class.

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    Ballot initiatives on immigration and abortion could decide Arizona

    Arizona voters will vote for the state The Right to Abortion Initiativewhich would codify abortion rights in the state constitution. An immigration and border enforcement measure –that would make crossing Arizona’s border from Mexico illegally a state crime, letting state police arrest and detain migrants and allowing state judges to deport them — will also be on the ballot. Harris and Democrats are counting on the abortion ballot measure to succeed, as have similar initiatives seven other states where they voted, while Trump is hoping for the same for the border enforcement measure. Immigration is a top concern in Arizona Associated Press reported, noting that frustration over illegal immigration lingers in the state after a increase in migrant crossings.

    Big number

    1.5 points. This is Harris’ national poll leader in FiveThirtyEight’s average. Trump has a 0.1 point lead in Real Clear Politics’ poll average and Harris leads Nate Silver’s by 1.2 points The silver bulletin.

    Key background

    Trump, who won Arizona in 2016, lost the battleground state by just 10,457 votes in 2020 to Biden. Despite the loss, Trump claimed victory in Arizona and claimed later the entire database of voters in Maricopa County, the state’s most populous county, was wiped. Republican officials overseeing the election dismissed Trump’s claim, with Maricopa County reporter Stephen Richer describing Trump’s statement as “unbalanced.” Trump also tried to pressure former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) to overturn the election, telling the governor in a phone call that if enough fraudulent votes were identified he would overturn the results in his favor , The Washington Post reported. Trump is battling Harris in six other swing states besides Arizona. They all stay hotly contested.

    Further reading

    2024 election state polls: Trump holds lead in Arizona, while Harris holds narrow lead in Pennsylvania (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Pennsylvania 2024 Polls: Harris leads crucial state in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Georgia 2024 polls: Harris holds surprise 1-point lead in new poll (Forbes)

    Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads in latest poll (Forbes)

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