Rome wasn’t built in a day and the same can be said for the housing market recovery. Buyers still face hurdles, but the market is starting to change. In recent months, mortgage rates have fallen to a two-year low due to the decrease in inflation and a The Fed’s jumbo rate cut in Septemberbefore ticking off again in October. As we turn the page to November, other factors could have an impact mortgage rates moving forward.

For anyone thinking about buying or refinancing a home, the latest changes raise an important question: Will mortgage interest rates drop in November? To help answer the question, it’s helpful to take a look at both possibilities.

Get started by seeing what mortgage interest rate you can qualify for here.

Will mortgage interest rates fall in November?

Not sure what to expect for mortgage rates in November. There is an argument to be made for both scenarios:

Yes, mortgage interest rates will fall in November

Despite the increase in mortgage rates in October, the average fell from 6.86% in July to the current rate of 6.57% as of October 29, 2024. However, some developments in November may cause home loan rates to reverse course.

Many experts expect the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate at its meeting in early November. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 98.4% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% or 25 basis points.

A reduction in the federal funds rate and a 10-year treasury the sale could lead to a drop in mortgage rates, says Kevin Leibowitz, founder and mortgage broker at Grayton Mortgage. “I think rates will come down in November for two main reasons. One, the rate sell-off – the rise (fall in price) of 10-year Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in sympathy – has been exaggerated. The Fed has shifted its stance from raising rates to stop inflation to lowering and holding rates. The 10-year Treasury appears to be oversold, and we should see improvements as the month progresses.”

See how low your mortgage interest rate could be locked in now.

No, mortgage rates will not drop in November

Of course, mortgage rates are as unpredictable as ever. Homebuyers and mortgage brokers alike are hoping that the Fed’s substantial interest rate cut in September will ease the home loan market. Mortgage rates initially fell before climbing again in October.

“Unfortunately, the only way interest rates are trending right now is up, and there doesn’t seem to be an end in sight,” says Sarah Alvarez, vice president of mortgage banking at William Raveis Mortgage. “Today, we saw a major rally in the bond market due to concerns that, regardless of which party wins, we will likely have to deal with a potentially inflationary impact of the election, especially when it comes to issuing new debt. treasury. With continued strong economic data and stubborn inflation, it may take longer than we had hoped to see significant and lasting relief in the rates market.”

Should you secure a mortgage or wait?

With mortgage rates seemingly in flux, should you take out a new mortgage or refinance now or it is better to wait?

“If you have to make a move, and ownership is an option, then make it,” Leibowitz says. “Focus on the payment, not the rate. Can I afford the payment? Do the housing expenses—mortgage payment, property taxes, and title insurance—make sense compared to what I could get by renting?”

Leibowitz also says those looking to refinance should do so if the numbers work. “I tell clients not to go over the dollars to withdraw the money. If you can save a good amount of money, then save those savings. If the rates get better, then we can refinance.”

The bottom line

While your mortgage rate is an important factor when buying a home or refinancingit is not your only consideration. Furthermore, predicting future mortgage rates is difficult even for the most experienced in the industry.

As Jim Davis, partner and senior wealth advisor at Aspen Wealth Management points out, “The thing about the future is, well, it’s the future. It’s hard to tell where rates are headed, even if there are signs that they may stabilize or Rather than trying to predict every move, I usually advise you to focus on what you can control – have a solid strategy for debt management and make sure your financial plan can adapt, no matter what the rates are going to be.”

Do you have any more questions? Learn more about your current mortgage rate options here.